The immediate driver is a rush of metal to the US — aimed at front-running potential import tariffs — that threatens to leave the rest of the world undersupplied. But this year’s advance has also been fuelled by unplanned mine outages and the buzz around its use in the infrastructure for artificial intelligence. Investors have piled into futures and mining stocks despite widespread production setbacks.
There have already been plenty of bullish forecasts for 2026. Citigroup Inc has said prices could hit US$13,000 a tonne by the second quarter amid the scramble to get metal to US shores. Goldman Sachs Group Inc last week flagged copper as its favoured metal for the year ahead.
In a clear sign of growing supply stress, difficult talks for annual ore supply contracts resulted in a deal for smelters to get zero dollars per ton for processing fees — the lowest on record. Some smelters have already been forced to shut down or dial back production as their processing margins have plunged, and further outages could add to strains on supply of refined metal traded on the LME and other futures exchanges.
Copper was up 0.9% to US$11,982 a tonne by 8:14am local time on the LME. Aluminum, zinc and nickel also rose, while lead and tin fell.
See also: No silver lining in meltdown
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