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Roundophobia could set in as STI approaches 5,000 but uptrend should stay intact

Goola Warden
Goola Warden • 3 min read
Roundophobia could set in as STI approaches 5,000 but uptrend should stay intact
The STI's technical indicators are becoming increasingly overstretched in an historic context indicating that the index may consolidate first before heading higher
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Roundophobia is a term coined by a technical analyst popular in the 1980s, David Fuller. It means a fear of round numbers for the stock market. 5,000 is such a number. It just so happens that as the Straits Times Index approaches 5,000, technical indicators are somewhat overstretched. Short term 21-day RSI remains stubbornly above the overbought line which in itself is not an alarming signal.

However, directional movement indicators are overstretched, with both +DI and ADX at their highest levels in five years. In addition, weekly ADX and +DI are at their highest levels in 10 years, as is 13-week RSI. All these suggest that the STI is ready for a rest. This could take the form of a sideways consolidation with the index retreating around 10% from its high and trading within a sideways range of plus and minus 10%.

Unfortunately, a 10% correction translates into more than 400 points. Hence, don’t be surprised if the index falls by 400 points. At this level, the bull market will still be intact as the STI remains above its major moving averages. The 50-day moving average is some way away at 4,671.

The price of gold has been a popular investing theme. It is noteworthy that gold is not a medium of exchange, which can be used to make purchases, nor a unit of account, in which prices are quoted. It sits there in vaults, hoarded by manufacturers of gold ETFs, especially ETFs which are fully backed by gold such as SPDR Gold ETF. According to the World Gold Concil, in 2025, global gold ETF holdings grew by 801 tonnes – the second strongest year on record – while bar and coin buying accelerated to reach a 12-year high.

“Central bank purchases of 863 tonnes reached the upper end of our expected 2025 range; they remain historically elevated and geographically widespread but have slowed from their recent pace,” the World Gold Council says.

See also: With the STI closing in on 5,000, these laggards may rebound

A decline in jewellery demand volumes was not surprising with successive record gold price highs, the Gold Council points out.Technology demand was stable despite disruption in the consumer electronics space, supported by continued growth in AI-related applications, the Gold Council adds.

Above all, gold is being viewed as the debasement trade. ““The skyrocketing gold prices we are seeing now are a consequence of what finance types call the “debasement trade.” While the effect of the debasement trade is shown most spectacularly in sharply rising gold and silver prices, it’s also visible in the falling value of the dollar and in rising long-term interest rates,” notes Paul Krugman, winner of the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2008.

See also: The FTSE REIT Index is a laggard, but why?

Debasement here means a shift away from US financial assets by investors due to fears of future erosion of the value of those assets. This is probably caused by the perceived loss of independence of the Federal Reserve. As a case in point, 10 year US treasury yields remain above 4.20% and 30-year US treasury yields are entrenched stubbornly above 4.80%.

Conclusion? Investors should stick with assets in safe haven currencies such as the SGD. Even if the STI corrects its overbought position, its main uptrend remains intact.

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