Resistance appears at US$75,000, and support has been established at US$60,000 for the time being. Note that the weekly chart has the appearance of a head and shoulder top formation with the bitcoin breakdown level at US$82,527.
Bitcoin is trading at around US$66,286 as of the late evening of Feb 6.
According to CNBC, the sell-off in bitcoin materialised following the drop in tech stocks in the US. Bitcoin has often been correlated with risk assets like tech stocks in the US and fall when they fall.
See also: Roundophobia could set in as STI approaches 5,000 but uptrend should stay intact
Gold should rebound as its indicators are at neutral levels. If these indicators can rebound off their neutral levels, gold’s correction could abate and the metal could rebound. Resistance appears at US$5,000.
It is curious why funds buy and sell bitcoin. Bitcoin is not a medium of exchange or a store of value or a unit of account. Although gold has these properties as well, it is a hedge against the USD for investors whose home currency is not the US dollar, hence it is sometimes viewed as a haven in the debasement trade.
Gold also has uses, in the tech sector, and above all in jewellery. Although gold itself is not very liquid, SPDR Gold ETF is easily tradeable on markets including the SGX.
See also: With the STI closing in on 5,000, these laggards may rebound
SPDR gold ETF is fully backed by gold. Technically, gold has gained relative strength against bitcoin.
Bitcoin is an asset where ownership is often determined by possession of a digital key validated by a blockchain. One of the reasons for bitcoin’s recent sell-off in the past week has been attributed to a fear that quantum computers could unlock these digital keys.
The inevitability of the Straits Times Index testing 5,000 is at hand. The STI’s +DI is as high as bitcoin’s -DI. This implies that the STI’s indicators are at the overbought area. Short term 21-day RSI remains stubbornly above the overbought line and it has started to form a negative divergence with the index.
Similarly quarterly momentum has flattened at a high level and this has the appearance of a negative divergence with the index. Weekly ADX and +DI are at their highest levels in 10 years, as is 13-week RSI. These are not alarming signals in themselves as long as these indicators do not break down.
If a consolidation sets in and the index moves within a sideways range, the lower boundary could be as low as 4,500.
