Others would suggest that this was a remarkable economic performance in the face of substantial international trade obstacles. Ongoing policy changes were successful in unlocking domestic demand, as shown by increases in discretionary spending like travel, along with increases in retail sales and services. Consumption spending added more to China’s GDP growth in 2025 than it did in 2024.
There is room for improvement, but this is far from an economy on its knees. What China calls ‘new quality productive forces’ are the drivers of economic change in the digital economy, and they are reshaping national prosperity. GDP growth is a measure that is not well suited to measuring opportunities emerging from AI, advances in quantum computing, 6G connectivity in autonomous vehicles, data management and thorium-based energy.
The GDP figures and the trade data provide ample evidence that the Belt and Road Initiative is not dead and buried. The steady growth of business with the Global South is a trend that all business needs to take notice of.
Some Western commentators offered snide remarks around the speed of the release of the figures, calling them “notoriously rubbery”, alleging the “official numbers wildly overstate the pace of growth”, which they claim is closer to 3.5%. These same commentators are silent on the routine revision of US economic figures weeks after their release.
See also: Slowing down the China manufacturing juggernaut, one approval at a time
The accuracy and speed of compilation of GDP figures have been enabled by the rapid shift to a digital economy and coordinated reporting. This does not mean email submission of PDF report documents. It includes aggregation of real time digital information. The integration of digital reporting makes the compilation of economic figures possible in almost real time.
It can be done in the West, but Western economies are not as digitally advanced and coordinated. The economic data available to social media companies is gathered and assessed more quickly than data collected by diverse government bodies. Amazon can tell you in seconds about changing consumer behaviour.
Chinese policymakers make better use of aggregated digital data to inform policy. The ability to do this at scale deserves recognition, not suspicion, and helps explain the speed and accuracy of the 5% GDP figure.
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Accurate forecasts depend on timely, reliable economic data. China’s digital economy allows information to be gathered and assessed at speed.
Technical outlook for the Shanghai market
The 4,100 level, once a target, is now the support level for the Shanghai Index. The pullback and rebound from 4,100 is consistent with a continuation of the uptrend towards the target level of 4,300.
The breakout from 3,888 was a fast rally rather than a trend. A trend is defined by at least two anchor points. The current retreat and rebound pattern establishes a second anchor point for a potential longer-term uptrend line.
The degree of slope is shallower than the fast-moving rally, and that makes the trend more sustainable. The position of the trend line is adjusted if the market develops a sideways move around 4,100.
The Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) relationships suggest this is most likely a temporary retreat rather than a change in trend. The long-term group of averages remains widely separated. This suggests that investors are active buyers when the market retreats.
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Compression in this group would show that investors were joining the sell-off. That is often associated with a change in trend, but it is not seen on the current chart.
The minor compression in the short-term group of averages shows that some traders are taking profits. However, the lack of significant compression or crossover suggests the sell-off is temporary. This supports the analysis that the 4,000 level is now a good support feature and a base for a rebound continuation of the uptrend.
Adding further to this conclusion is the steady degree of separation between the long-term and short-term groups of averages. A narrowing of this separation is usually associated with a weakening trend.
The steady degree of separation between the two groups of moving averages is also very bullish, as it shows continued confidence in trend continuation. Variation in the degree of separation indicates trend instability.
The Shanghai Index moves in well-defined trading bands. The width of these bands is used to set upside and downside targets. The December breakout from 3,888 had a calculated upside target near 4,100. Using the same trade band projection method, the next upside target is near 4,300.
The trading bands do not tell us how the move will develop. For that analysis, we use the GMMA.
The GMMA relationships suggest there is a strong probability of uptrend continuation. The behaviour of the market is reflected in trend analysis, and this remains bullish.
Daryl Guppy is an international financial technical analysis expert. He has provided weekly Shanghai Index analysis for mainland Chinese media for two decades. Guppy appears regularly on CNBC Asia and is known as “The Chart Man”. He is a former national board member of the Australia-China Business Council. The writer owns Chinese stock and index ETFs
