(Jan 15): Applications for US unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to the lowest level since November, following weeks of holiday season volatility in the data.
Initial claims decreased by 9,000 to 198,000 in the week ended Jan 10, according to Labor Department data released on Thursday. The figure was below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Claims have only fallen below 200,000 a few times in recent years. The four-week moving average of new applications, a metric that helps smooth out volatility, fell to 205,000 last week, the lowest in two years.
Thursday’s figures suggest layoffs aren’t meaningfully picking up at the start of the year, though the data are likely still affected by holiday-related fluctuations. While multiple large employers have recently announced plans to cut jobs, including PepsiCo Inc and Meta Platforms Inc, hard data indicates those have yet to translate to widespread layoffs.
A University of Michigan survey showed consumers remained downbeat about the labour market in recent weeks, with nearly two-thirds expecting unemployment to rise in the year ahead.
See also: Citi warns of potential economic slowdown from Trump’s credit card cap
Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, declined to 1.88 million in the previous week.
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