(March 17): A Pakistani tanker earlier this week became the latest vessel to sail out through the Strait of Hormuz by hewing closely to the Iranian coast, suggesting an approved route that points to Tehran’s tightening grip on the narrow waterway — even as the US seeks to assert control.
The Pakistani-flagged Karachi — which openly signalled it was transiting through the chokepoint — sailed through a narrow gap between the two Iranian islands of Larak and Qeshm on Sunday, before tracking the coast into the Gulf of Oman, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Two bulk carriers which had called at Iranian ports took the same route on Monday morning, broadcasting their whereabouts even as other ships prefer to switch off transponders for safety.
In the early hours of Saturday, two India-flagged liquefied petroleum gas tankers also exited the strait, while a Gambia-flagged general cargo ship has just left Hormuz on Tuesday. Sporadic signals placed the three vessels near Larak, but the full route could not be determined because of electronic interference that scrambles information coming from vessels in the region.
If the route continues to be used successfully, it could mean a traffic control system is being imposed by Iran, said Harrison Prétat, the deputy director and a fellow of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). That could mean Tehran attacks vessels or uses mines on the traditional route — while maintaining a free channel for friendly tankers on the other side.
“The use of this route so far appears to be tied to Iran’s apparent approval of specific ships transiting the strait, which makes some sense, as this area would be easier for Iranian authorities to control,” Prétat said.
Since US and Israeli attacks began a little over two weeks ago, Iran has hit several ships in and around the strait, and all but closed the waterway. That has left vessels stuck inside the Persian Gulf and others unable to enter — an unprecedented degree of disruption to the energy trade that has created shortages and price spikes across Asia and beyond.
See also: India’s growth seen at risk as Iran war shows no sign of easing
The continued upheaval has also prompted some countries to ask Tehran for safe passage, to secure at least a trickle of cargoes. Indian and Turkish officials are among those who have reported receiving a green light for vessels. Pakistan has not commented on the circumstances around its ship’s journey.
“This creates a system in which the strait is not formally closed, yet transit increasingly depends on political understandings with Tehran,” JPMorgan Chase & Co analysts including Natasha Kaneva said in a note.
In normal times, it would be unusual for ships to sail so close to Iran, due to security risks. Navigational rules in the region also mean that the usual path for ships exiting the strait would be closer to the opposite side of the waterway — but last week at least one ship sailing the traditional route came under attack.
See also: Trump says he asked China to delay Xi summit due to Iran war
India is now trying to secure safe passage for another six tankers currently inside the Persian Gulf, though it is not clear which channel they will follow on their way out.
“We could be seeing the start of a verification process by Iran, whereby ships must be approved to transit via the Strait of Hormuz by calling between Larak and Qeshm,” said Martin Kelly, the head of advisory of EOS Risk Group.
The transits have offered encouragement to oil traders — but the proximity of this route to Iran still poses problems for insurers and for the banks that actually finance the commodities trade.
Insurers often have specific language in policy documents that detail what areas are considered high risk, while some banks issue risk alerts to compliance teams when they see a ship on a journey they have helped finance appears close to Iran. Western insurers are usually unable to respond to claims linked to Iran because of the extensive sanctions on the country, heightening the risk of taking the new route.
More importantly, the few vessels making their way through remain a tiny fraction of the usual flow.
“These few authorised passages don’t come close to restoring the full scale of normal traffic or energy flows coming from the region,” said the CSIS’ Prétat.
Uploaded by Tham Yek Lee
