CDL posted a strong share price performance in 2025, delivering a total return of 82.6% including dividends. The gains were attributed to Equity Market Development Programme (EQDP) inflows and the divestment of approximately $2 billion worth of non-core assets.
The analysts estimate the group has another $7.5 billion in non-core assets that could be sold or placed into a private fund or a REIT. However, the ongoing conflict may hinder the group’s ability to monetise these assets and sustain the re-rating seen over the past year.
CDL’s hotels, which account for around 30% of the analysts’ estimated FY2026 ebit and revalued net asset value (RNAV), are also susceptible to a slowdown. Although the group has no properties in the Middle East, demand for its hotels in the US, UK, Europe and Asia may be affected by higher oil and airfares, as well as limited flight capacity from Middle Eastern carriers.
Given the uncertainty around the war in Iran, the analysts now assume 0% y-o-y growth in revenue per available room (RevPAR) for FY2026 and FY2027, down from 2% to 3%.
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“With a tougher macro backdrop and fading drivers of CDL’s strong share price, we recommend investors move to the sidelines,” write Song and Khi. “This is a tactical move; investors should revisit CDL if the Iran conflict resolves, asset monetisation improves, or CDL’s strategic review (mid-2026) delivers positive outcomes.”
‘Fairly valued’ UOL to see slower growth
At the same time, the analysts believe UOL could face slower growth amid softer macroeconomic fundamentals.
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UOL, up 17.9% year to date, is one of the top performers among Singapore-listed companies. It is also tipped to be one of the key beneficiaries of the EQDP inflows. The inflows are now expected to moderate amid heightened geopolitical tensions, with a greater risk of profit-taking.
In addition, Khi and Song believe UOL’s residential sales will slow to $2 billion to $3 billion in 2026, down from the $5 billion achieved in 2025.
“While we continue to expect a 10% three-year earnings CAGR, this slows from the 49% growth in FY2025,” they write in a separate report, also dated March 16.
“The heightened risk environment could slow asset monetisation via REITs or funds,” they add. “Amid softer macro fundamentals and fading momentum factors, we see the stock as more fairly valued at current levels.”
Like CDL, the analysts expect UOL to report a slowdown in its hospitality arm, which accounts for 20% to 25% of UOL’s FY2026 ebitda/RNAV. UOL also has limited exposure to the Middle East, although risks of higher fuel costs and flight curtailments may impact demand for the group’s Singapore-centric portfolio.
Similarly, the analysts have assumed 0% y-o-y growth in FY2026 and a 2% to 3% increase in FY2027’s RevPAR. Every 5% change in UOL’s RevPAR will impact the group’s earnings per share (EPS) by 1%.
At home, UOL and its subsidiary, Singapore Land Group, are still likely to secure permission to redevelop Marina Square in 1H2026. However, plans for a substantial $2 billion to $3 billion investment may be delayed due to macro headwinds.
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In addition to their downgrades, the analysts have lowered their target prices for CDL and UOL to $8.70 and $9.55, respectively, from $10.75 and $12.05.
Higher RNAV discount
CDL’s target price reflects a higher RNAV discount of 35% from 15% based on a revised RNAV of $13.35 from $12.65. UOL’s target price also reflects an increased RNAV discount of 35% from 18% with an unchanged FY2027 RNAV of $14.70 per share.
That said, the analysts have increased their FY2026 and FY2027 patmi estimates for CDL by 5% and 1%, respectively, driven by lower cost-of-debt assumptions of 3.25% and 3.6%, down from 3.4% and 3.8%.
Their FY2026 and FY2027 patmi now stand at 48% and 47% below the consensus estimate, mainly due to expectations of large disposal and revaluation gains.
CDL’s new target price implies an FY2027 P/B of 0.79 times, or 0.9 standard deviations below the mean.
Meanwhile, the analysts have increased UOL’s FY2026 EPS estimates by 2% and lowered their FY2027 EPS expectations by 8% for variances in project recognition.
UOL’s new target price reflects a “balanced risk-reward profile” at 0.69 times forward P/B, in line with the historical mean. It also accounts for the normalisation of growth drivers. UOL, based on its last closing price of $10.30 on March 13, is trading at a P/B multiple of 0.74 times.
