(March 18): Wall Street staged a cautious advance, with stocks rising as traders tried to look through the potential implications of higher oil prices to inflation as the war in Iran showed no signs of abating.
While most shares in the S&P 500 climbed, the index saw a modest gain. US crude eased from session highs, but settled above US$96. Airlines jumped after some executives cited strong bookings as travelers rush to lock in fares ahead of a potential increase in fuel costs. Bond yields fell alongside the dollar on the eve of the Federal Reserve decision.
President Donald Trump abandoned his effort to recruit partners for the war and scolded allies who openly rejected his appeals, even as he repeated claims the conflict would end soon. The near shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has wreaked havoc on energy markets.
Israel said it killed Iran’s security chief, Ali Larijani. The development came after Tehran set a massive natural gas field in the United Arab Emirates ablaze overnight. Trump threatened to expand strikes on Kharg Island, Iran’s main export hub.
Russia is sharing satellite imagery and drone technology with Iran, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
“There is a growing sense that markets are trying to look through the current tensions,” said Fawad Razaqzada at Forex.com. “Still, markets aren’t getting carried away. If the conflict drags on, the risk is that it starts to weigh more heavily on stock markets again.”
See also: US stocks gain as investors buy the dip while Iran war escalates
The equity market’s willingness to rise in the face of high oil prices reflects the strong demand for stocks and expectations for solid earnings as well as economic growth, according to Louis Navellier.
“Investors should expect continued volatility until the energy situation stabilizes,” said the veteran strategist. “There’s a relief rally in the future when a return to ‘normal’ energy markets becomes clearer. The sooner the Iran conflict is resolved, the better.”
US stocks are flashing their strongest buy signal in almost a year, according to Barclays’ Alex Altmann.
See also: US may drop quarterly reporting: WSJ
The Barclays’ Equity Timing Indicator, or BETI, dropped to its lowest since the April tariff turmoil, he wrote. It reached a threshold that has historically marked “highly attractive” entry points.
The market is trying to find a bottom, according to Rick Gardner at RGA Investments. While the conflict could go on for some time, he says that doesn’t mean equities would follow suit.
“Stocks tend to move ahead of various events, like wars, well before they are over,” he noted. “Valuations in stocks remain attractive, creating a potentially attractive entry point for investors looking to put new money to work.”
In the countdown to the Fed decision, officials are widely expected to hold rates steady, with attention shifting to how they may respond if the fallout from the war pulls their policy goals in opposite directions.
“Risk assets like US stocks and cryptocurrencies have held up surprisingly well despite all the turmoil,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro. “Depending on whether the Fed strikes a more dovish or hawkish tone, that could shape the near-term direction for both into quarter-end.”
Still, with so much uncertainty, the Fed may be more inclined to stay the course than shake things up, he added.
Uploaded by Isabelle Francis
