(Jan 6): US stocks crept higher Tuesday morning, extending gains to start the year as investors awaited a batch of economic reports headlined by jobs data later this week.
The S&P 500 Index rose 0.1% as of 9.36am in New York. Power producer Vistra Corp was among the top-performing stocks in the US benchmark after striking a deal to buy a fleet of natural gas power plants to deepen its AI bet. The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index climbed 0.3%, while the blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed after closing at a record on Monday.
While the US weekend raid that captured Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro has reverberated in the world of geopolitics, it’s so far been met with a shrug on Wall Street. Some haven assets advanced, notably gold and US Treasuries. But the Cboe Volatility Index remained subdued, trading below 16.
Wall Street bulls will need a lot to go right in 2026 for equities to notch another year of gains, with ever-present trade tensions, an economy showing signs of sluggishness, and the artificial intelligence trade far from a slam dunk. But there are positive forces supporting the market.
“Bulls head into 2026 with fiscal and monetary stimulus at their back,” Vital Knowledge founder Adam Crisafulli wrote in a Tuesday morning note.
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Traders will parse S&P Global US Services PMI data at 9.45am Tuesday. Also ahead this week, the latest reads on factory orders, jobless claims, unemployment and sentiment will provide investors additional clues on the path of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rates.
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said monetary policy will require “finely tuned judgements” going forward and that interest rates are now in the neutral range.
Bloomberg’s latest Markets Pulse survey indicates most investors see further stock gains this year. The S&P 500 will climb as much as 20% in 2026, according to 60% of the 590 respondents to a poll conducted in the last three weeks of December. Less than a third of participants expected losses for the benchmark.
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Last year’s correction and subsequent recovery suggest the stock market may be in store for further gains. There have only been four instances when the S&P 500 fell at least 15%, and then rallied back to achieve an annual advance like in 2025. The previous cases have all been followed by strong gains in the subsequent year.
This week’s CES conference in Las Vegas is offering a pulse-check on AI endeavours, with technology companies delivering announcements about their businesses and unveiling new products.
Advanced Micro Devices Inc showcased a new chip for corporate data centres. Nvidia Corp chief executive officer Jensen Huang said the company’s highly-anticipated Rubin processors are on track for deployment by customers in the second half of the year. And Intel Corp is showing off laptops based on processors with a new design.
Equity positioning drifted lower across US indexes last week as longs were unwound and new shorts put in place, according to Citigroup Inc strategists led by Chris Montagu. S&P and Nasdaq futures positioning remains near neutral and risks are muted, his team writes.
At Goldman Sachs Group Inc, newly minted chief US equity strategist Ben Snider expects “micro rotations” in the stock market this year due to extreme concentration and the evolving AI trade. The 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 account for 41% of market capitalisation and drove 53% of the benchmark’s 2025 return, according to the bank.
Expectations for AI spending to exceed estimates while growth decelerates as corporate adoption increases are poised to spur rotations “that create two-way risk for the aggregate index”, Snider wrote in a note to clients.
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In corporate news, Trafigura Group and other oil traders will hold talks with the US government about how they can return to buying crude from Venezuela and supplying fuel to the country after the removal of Maduro over the weekend.
Under Armour Inc jumped after Fairfax Financial Holdings disclosed a sizeable stake in the sportswear company.
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