(March 18): Japan’s inbound tourism numbers returned to growth in February, as an increase from other regions made up for a continued slump in Chinese tourists.
Total inbound arrivals rose 6.4% last month after a contraction in January, Japan National Tourism Organisation data showed on Wednesday. Visitors from South Korea rose 28% while arrivals from the major markets of Taiwan, Hong Kong and the US also increased.
Strong visitor growth from other markets helped offset the decline in Chinese arrivals, which were down about 45% year-on-year. That’s an improvement from January’s 61% drop and broadly in line with December’s 45% decline.
The rebound underscores a broader resilience in Japan’s inbound travel sector, even as Chinese visitors continue to stay away. The earlier downturn was triggered by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks late last year that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could be considered an “existential threat” to Japan, potentially justifying military deployment. Beijing responded by warning citizens against travelling to Japan, leading to widespread flight cancellations through March 2026.
Japan’s retail sector continues to feel the strain. Duty-free sales at major department stores continued their fall in February, highlighting prolonged weakness.
Chinese tourists have been central to Japan’s post-Covid-19 recovery, accounting for about a fifth of ¥9.6 trillion in tourism revenue in 2025. The deterioration in ties has exposed Japan’s reliance on China as a vulnerability, intensifying its efforts to diversify its visitor base.
See also: Japan’s export growth slows on China holidays, US tariffs impact
Japan’s leading travel agency JTB Corp forecasts annual foreign tourist arrivals will decline this year for the first time since the country reopened its borders after the pandemic, projecting 41.5 million visitors. The forecast was made before the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, the number of Japanese travelling abroad fell by 7.4%.
The government is targeting 60 million inbound visitors and ¥15 trillion in tourism revenue by 2030. It’s also seeking to lift per-capita spending by foreign tourists by 9% by then and more than double the total number of overnight stays in regional areas to 130 million people. Authorities are also working to balance tourism growth with local concerns, curbing overtourism that has strained some communities.
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