(March 16): India will hold elections in key states in April, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party looking to extend its grip even as it grapples with an energy crisis and rising inflation tied to the crisis in the Middle East.
Four states, including the southern state of Tamil Nadu state, one of India’s biggest investment hubs, will vote on April 23, the Election Commission of India announced on Sunday. Polling in West Bengal, where Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been trying to make gains for years, will take place in two phases ending April 29.
State elections are usually seen as a referendum on Modi’s governance. That makes the upcoming polls crucial, as the opposition’s uproar over a cooking gas shortage — caused by the Iran war and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz — grows louder. India, as the world’s second-largest importer, relies on the Middle East for about 90% of its supplies, leaving it highly exposed to the crisis.
“If anybody is able to take advantage of the energy crisis, it will be the state governments, saying that New Delhi did not anticipate this,” said Sandeep Shastri, a political scientist and vice president of the Bangalore campus of Nitte University.
A win in West Bengal — long dominated by regional parties — would extend the BJP’s grip across eastern India and potentially unseat Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, one of Modi’s most prominent political rivals.
The electoral contest in Tamil Nadu, meanwhile, remains largely between regional parties, with both the BJP and the main national opposition Indian National Congress playing smaller roles as junior partners.
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On April 9, the state of Kerala, which has India’s highest literacy rate, and Assam will vote, Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar said in a briefing in New Delhi. The union territory of Puducherry with just 30 legislative seats will also go to polls that day.
In Assam and West Bengal, the BJP is largely campaigning on illegal immigration from Bangladesh. Last year, the Election Commission announced a special revision of voter rolls in most of the states heading to the polls, with the stated goal of keeping illegal immigrants from casting a ballot.
Analysts anticipate a tough fight ahead for the BJP in West Bengal, where Banerjee has been in power for 15 years. Modi’s party has gained vote share but lagged the regional All India Trinamool Congress by 10 percentage points in the 2021 state election and lacks a strong local leader for its campaign beyond the prime minister.
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“Mamata has the challenge of a 15-year fatigue, and the BJP has the challenge of the absence of a credible local face,” said Shastri. “This state election will be a photo finish this time, undoubtedly.”
Opposition parties across the country have accused the BJP-led government of using the Election Commission to disenfranchise voters, mostly Muslims, who have traditionally not backed Modi. Both the BJP and the commission have repeatedly denied the allegations.
The results of all five elections will be announced on May 4, said Kumar.
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