(Jan 7): The Indian government expects growth of 7.4% in the financial year through March, maintaining its status as the world’s fastest-growing major economy despite trade tensions with the US.
The gross domestic product growth estimates, released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on Wednesday (Jan 7), are broadly in line with the median forecast of 7.5% in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The figures are likely to be revised in the federal budget in February, and the final numbers will be released after the financial year ends.
At the projected pace, the economy’s size would rise to about 357.14 trillion rupees in nominal terms, the ministry said. The South Asian economy has shown resilience despite a tough year marked by conflict with nuclear-armed neighbour Pakistan and global trade tensions. India remains one of the few major economies without a trade agreement with the US.
The data reflects that “despite rising global uncertainties, India continued to perform well”, said Sakshi Gupta, economist with HDFC Bank Ltd.
Even so, the growth rate would not be enough for India to overtake Japan by March — a milestone the Narendra Modi government has repeatedly said the country has already achieved. Japan’s government projects nominal GDP of about ¥669.2 trillion for the same period.
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India is also set to revise its GDP calculation methodology, likely in February, a move that could materially alter growth estimates.
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