(Jan 15): Iran may have averted US strikes for now after US President Donald Trump appeared to walk back threats to attack Tehran for killing protesters, while a top Iranian official pledged not to carry out executions.
Trump told reporters on Wednesday he’d been informed the “killing in Iran is stopping”, adding he would be “very upset” if the crackdown continued. That was a marked shift from earlier in the week, when he urged Iranians to keep demonstrating and vowed that “help is on the way”.
Oil fell for the first time in six days as concerns eased over the likelihood of disruptions to supplies from Iran and Arab Gulf states. Brent dropped as much as 3.4% on Thursday — the most since November — after gaining about 11% over the past week.
Tracking data from FlightRadar24 showed flights resuming over Iran’s airspace after a temporary closure. Iran’s Civil Aviation Organisation said both inbound and outbound flights are underway, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency.
A series of developments earlier on Wednesday suggested Tehran and Washington were edging close to conflict. Iran temporarily closed its airspace amid reports of a partial redeployment of US troops from Qatar and other regional bases, while the UK announced it was temporarily closing its embassy in Iran. Tensions remain high across the region, with the prospects of a renewed flare-up — including a US intervention — still possible.
The protests in Iran appear to have receded since last week, when hundreds of thousands took to the streets nationwide to demonstrate against the regime of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Authorities say they have reasserted control, accusing the US and Israel of fuelling unrest and arming terrorists to kill civilians.
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Pro-government rallies and state-planned public funerals have dominated state TV coverage, though an ongoing nationwide internet blackout continues to hamper reporting of events on the ground.
Rights groups continued to report a mounting death toll from the demonstrations that began in late December and escalated significantly last week. The Oslo-based Iran Human Rights group said at least 3,428 protesters have died, marking it Tehran’s deadliest crackdown on dissidents in decades.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi gave an interview on Wednesday to Fox News — one of the few US outlets consistently favoured by Trump — to rule out executions of protesters. That appeared to respond directly to the president’s earlier warning that he could take “very strong action” if Iran went down that route.
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“Hanging is out of the question,” Araghchi said on Special Report with Bret Baier. “I haven’t heard about that, and there’s no hanging today, tomorrow, or whatever. I can tell you, I’m confident about that. There’s no plan for hanging at all.”
Araghchi reiterated the stance that “diplomacy is much better than war” and pushed back against additional US strikes. “Do not repeat the same mistake that you did in June. If you try a failed experience, you will get the same result,” he said.
Iran and US officials were locked in several rounds of Oman-mediated negotiations in June over Tehran’s atomic activities when Israel began airstrikes, abruptly ending the talks.
In response, Iran struck a US air base in Qatar and has banned international nuclear inspectors from examining its sites, leaving the whereabouts of a stockpile of near bomb grade uranium unknown.
Rights groups report that more than 18,000 people have been detained, with fears persisting of large-scale enforcement of the death penalty. On Wednesday, Iran’s judiciary ruled out a death sentence for 26-year-old Erfan Soltani, whom activists had said was at risk of imminent execution.
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