(Nov 25): The intense selling pressure that has weighed on bitcoin in recent weeks looks to be easing, raising hopes that the token’s brutal slide is nearing an end.
The original cryptocurrency hovered around US$88,000 on Tuesday, recovering from a slump that consigned it to a seven-month low, triggered massive liquidations and erased more than US$1 trillion ($1.3 trillion) in value from the broader digital-asset market.
The mood among traders remains cautious, highlighting the market’s fragile state. Bitcoin remains on track for its worst month since 2022, and exchange-traded funds investing in the token look likely to record their heaviest monthly outflows since launching. But after bitcoin’s modest rebound, some see cause for optimism.
In the bitcoin options market, the cost of purchasing downside protection has fallen sharply, with the premium for one-week puts over calls sliding to around 4.5% from a 2025 high of 11% reached on Friday, according to Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets.
“This indicates the level of stress has come down significantly, and investors expect we’ve seen the bottom for now,” she said.
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Another metric drawing attention is bitcoin’s 14-day relative strength index, now at 32 after a steep decline from early October. A reading of 30 or below typically signals an oversold asset while 70 or above indicates the opposite. Meanwhile, implied volatility on bitcoin options — a gauge of expected future price movement — has returned to April levels, when tariff news induced a wave of selling.
“This suggests traders are positioning for a breakout, which could of course be in either direction,” said Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter. “But options skew shows that the bets on further drops are softening relative to those on a price increase from here.”
Global crypto exchange-traded products have seen more than US$6 billion in outflows so far in November, the largest monthly withdrawal on record going back to 2018, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. Even so, investors are largely staying put. The US bitcoin ETFs’ combined redemptions of US$3.7 billion in November represent about 3% of their US$110 billion in assets.
See also: Bitcoin tops US$90,000 as options point towards shifting
For BlackRock Inc’s bitcoin fund (IBIT), short interest — measured by the dollar value of shares sold short — has plummeted, according to a report published by S3 Partners LLC.
BTC markets analyst Rachael Lucas noted that bitcoin’s muted trading on Monday could also indicate that selling pressure is subsiding. She sees US$80,000 as the near-term floor, with US$90,000 to US$95,000 forming the resistance band to any meaningful rebound.
Technology stocks drove an advance in global equities on Monday as traders kicked off a data-packed week. Investors have put the chances of a rate cut at the upcoming December meeting of the Federal Reserve at about 80%, up from 42% a week ago, according to futures contracts. Fed officials appear deeply divided over whether another reduction would be appropriate, following cuts in September and October.
“The market is going to be in wait-and-see mode until the Fed’s decision,” Orbit’s Mauron said. “Long-term holders who were exiting their position over US$100,000 are seeing current levels as too low to sell and are back in holding mode, while those looking to accumulate new positions may try to wait for another dip below US$85,000.”
Uploaded by Magessan Varatharaja
