Dubai's ultra-luxury real estate market posted record sales in 1H2026, driven largely by transactions agreed on before the city felt the impact of the Iran-Israel conflict, according to Knight Frank.
Sales of homes priced above US$10 million ($12.9 million) surged to US$5.1 billion in the first six months of the year, marking a 14% increase from the same period last year, the property firm said.
“Considering the current regional conflict, this new record showcases deals that were mostly agreed before the conflict but registered four to six weeks later,” says Faisal Durrani, head of research for Middle East and North Africa at Knight Frank. “That is not to say that market activity has stalled because we’re seeing daily transactions continue to come through, as the underlying fundamentals remain unchanged.”
A total of 296 transactions were recorded during the first half, including 165 in the first quarter and 131 in the second. Sales of homes valued at more than US$25 million reached a record 26 transactions over the period, according to data compiled by the global property consultancy.
Dubai emerged as a key target as Iran struck Gulf countries with missiles and drones at the peak of the war. Although most of the projectiles were intercepted, sectors like tourism have been hurt.
Dubai, which enjoyed a five-year property rally, has also seen home sales by developers slow.
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Still, the nature of the buyers have helped shield the market from severe correction, Durrani said, noting that there are now more end-users as opposed to the speculative purchasers seen in previous cycles. In 2008, 25% of homes were resold within 12 months of purchase, compared with 2025 when only 4% of homes were resold within one year of purchase, according to Knight Frank.
The impact of the conflict has been felt in mainstream residential prices which fell between 5% and 20%, depending on the location, according to Nicholas Spencer, head of residential for the Middle East and North Africa.
“This range has been influenced by owners and investors exiting the market, including motivated sellers, some of whom are still exiting with profits depending on when they purchased, given that average prices have risen by 82.9% over the past five and a half years,” said Spencer. “We may not have a true picture of the conflict’s impact until the autumn, assuming conditions remain stable.”
