For MINT the fundamental and economic rationale are obvious. The Federal Reserve is likely to lower the federal funds rate at least twice this year. And, rates could go a lot lower if the Fed loses its independence with its new chair. Two Kevins are in pole position to take over from Jerome Powell. These two are either Kevin Hasett or Kevin Warsh who was a Fed governor from 2006-2011. Christopher Waller, a current Fed governor has been mentioned as well as Blackrock’s Rick Reider along with Scott Bessent, Trump’s treasury secretary.
Although MINT’s interest rate hedge ratio is more than 92%, some 67.9% of its total debt is in USD. Based on its 1HFY2026 debt expiry profile, 17% (of which $182.2 million is from the joint-venture) expires in FY2026 (MINT has a March year-end). A further 17% or $474.6 million expires in FY2027. Should US rates decline, this would be a tailwind for MINT. “A 50 basis points change in base rates (Sora and Sofr) would have an estimated impact of $1.0 million or 0.04 cent per annum on amount available for distribution or DPU respectively,” MINT says.
Technically, MINT’s technical stance has strengthened and prices could rise to $2.23 this month from its Jan 2 price of $2.07.
See also: Year's top gainers and losers are mainly small caps
Based on the success of its C-REIT, CLI could see further tailwinds from monetising or recycling its investment properties in China. Technically, the share price has moved above a thrice tested resistance at $2.72. Its 50- and 200- moving averages (at $2.65 and $2.66) have converged and could be meeting the 100-day moving average at $2.69 in the next week or so, sustaining the price break above $2.72. This in turn provides the impetus for prices to test the one year high of $2.91 in an initial upmove.
The STI closed at 4,656 on Jan 2, up 20 points week-on-week. In the last week of December, the STI broke out of a minor resistance at 4,600, the top of an ascending right triangle. The breakout indicates an upside of 5,000 and this remains valid. Since indicators are relatively neutral, with ADX and quarterly momentum creeping higher from neutral levels, the upside is probably attainable this month.
Since the STI broke above 4,600, this level becomes the new support/ fail safe level. The 50-day moving average is currently at 4,536, and should continue to act as a support/ uptrend line.
