There are two key drivers. US growth is projected to remain above trend for the first three quarters of the year, underpinned by ongoing artificial intelligence investment and a strong fiscal impulse. “The AI story is still very much intact,” she says, pointing to over US$500 billion ($639 billion) in capex from hyperscalers this year.
What sets 2026 apart is fiscal policy. Raisah outlines two key rounds of fiscal support — rebates targeted at lower- and middle-income US workers early in the year, and further election-related handouts in the summer. However, she sees this as a “sugar rush” — short-term and not sustainable.
The anticipated uplift in consumer sentiment from these handouts could give companies the confidence to pass on higher costs, pushing inflation temporarily higher. “This is going to change consumer sentiment slightly... and they might be able to absorb the cost,” she says, adding that US inflation could rise to around 3.5% before easing back to 2% by 2027.
Despite this inflation bump, JPMAM expects only one or two rate cuts this year from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). “It doesn’t necessitate an insurance cut right now,” she says. “The prescription that you need for a US economy now is not more rate cuts, so the path to getting to a neutral rate is going to take slightly longer.”
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The labour market — the other key indicator for the Fed — remains tight, but not because of surging demand. “It’s not that all the workers are producing to the maximum capacity,” she adds. “But the reason why the unemployment rate, for example, ticks down is really a function of the lack of labour supply.” JPMAM sees unemployment averaging around 4.5% for the year.
Turning to Europe, Raisah points to a shift away from fiscal austerity and into strategic spending, particularly in defence-related infrastructure. She notes that spending is not confined to defence and military operations, but extends to infrastructure such as WiFi towers and networks.
In China, she highlights the pivot away from property-led growth to advanced manufacturing and technology. “The answer to the poor demographics, at least in China, is really a lot of robotics,” she says, citing increased investment in deep tech and automation. Raisah adds: “We do think that there’s still a lot of opportunities in China around tech.”
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In many other Asian markets, the attraction is more for yield than growth. “If you want income... the place to be at is Asia,” she continues. JPMAM sees income, not just price appreciation, playing a bigger role in returns this year.
Raisah also points to the MSCI APAC ex Japan index, where dividend yield has driven returns over time. “This is income. This is something that if you’re a long-term investor, you will like, and you can harvest that income, whether you’re thinking of a high dividend space in China, even in Singapore.”
On that note, JPMAM has been selected as one of the asset managers in Singapore to receive a portion of the $5 billion from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) as part of the Equity Market Development Programme (EQDP). JPMAM has also launched its Singapore and Asia Equity Income Fund, which has a 50% allocation to domestic equities and 50% to Asia ex-Japan equities.
Raisah sees APAC equities benefiting from structural themes including AI, semiconductors and improving corporate governance. “The corporate governance reform story is spreading across Asia,” she says, citing progress in Japan, South Korea and Singapore.
As for US equities, JPMAM is focused on earnings and margin resilience. “What we found is that profit margin is going to be very critical. Now the US is known to have, single-handedly, the best profit margins... compared to all the other markets.” Technology remains a key driver, but she notes that not all names are equal. “Active selection is going to be so critical still, because not all tech companies are made the same.”
In fixed income, JPMAM sees fewer opportunities for capital appreciation and is focused on yield. “You are not going to get returns from capital appreciation of your bond prices... I think it re-emphasises the point that if you want fixed income, it’s really to get the income story.”
Overall, Raisah says: “Rebalancing your portfolio is going to be so central... de-risking some of that risk, that is concentration risk in US tech, for example, is going to be key.”
