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Margins may dip but UltraGreen.ai poised for more growth with more regulatory approvals

The Edge Singapore
The Edge Singapore  • 5 min read
Margins may dip but UltraGreen.ai poised for more growth with more regulatory approvals
'We expect UltraGreen to maintain strong pricing power, supported by its market leadership and the relatively low cost of ICG as a percentage of overall surgical expenses' / Photo: UltraGreen.ai
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UltraGreen.ai, a global market leader in the sale of indocyanine green (ICG) used in surgeries, reported FY2025 ended Dec 31, 2025 earnings of US$75.6 million ($96.9 million) for its first financial report card since its IPO last December, an increase of 35% over the preceding FY2024.

Revenue in the same period was up 24% to US$142.4 million, driven by a 14% increase in the volume of vials shipped and a 17% increase in average selling price. The company maintained its gross margin at 85%.

Its adjusted ebitda increased by 26% and its operating profit by 27%, reaching US$89.4 million and US$84.2 million, respectively, which the company says indicates strong operating performance.

Its net profit after tax, before exceptional items, meanwhile, was up 14% to US$63.8 million. The one-offs included a disposal gain of US$23.7 million, a US$8.5 million tax provision, US$3.4 million in impairment charges, a loss on disposal of a non-core intangible asset and other charges.

CEO Ravinder Sajwan calls FY2025 “a significant milestone” for the company with its IPO last December. He expects the company to continue delivering strong operational and financial growth, with FY2026 revenue between US$170 million and US$190 million. “This outlook is driven by underlying business expansion, the full-year impact of pricing initiatives implemented in FY2025, and further penetration into new markets,” says Sajwan.

Amanda Tan of DBS Group Research, in her post-results note, says the “structural growth story” of UltraGreen remains unchanged, supported by continued ICG adoption, the full-year impact of prior increases in average selling price and further geographic expansion.

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UltraGreen’s revenue guidance is broadly in line with Tan’s US$178 million estimate. Tan, citing management, says the company’s guidance assumes a roughly equal split between volume gains and higher selling prices. Tan adds that there are no price increases planned for the US market in FY2026, while non-US markets are to see some “negligible” price increases, largely due to contractual price adjustments. “Thus far, orders year to date are on track to meet guidance,” she adds.

However, Tan flags that the company is making further investments, which will incur additional costs. UltraGreen, she says, is increasing its headcount to 102 from 70 last year, in areas such as regulatory compliance and software, to accelerate business expansion, scale imaging systems and commercialise its data systems platform. “While this may temper near-term margins, we view it as strategically important to sustain long-term growth,” says Tan, who is keeping her “buy” call on this stock.

Tan also notes that UltraGreen’s clinical and regulatory momentum continues to strengthen, which will presumably help reinforce its structural growth trajectory and wider use. She says the industry backdrop for Ultragreen remains favourable, with more than 20,000 peer-reviewed publications and over 780 clinical trials as of the end of 2025, validating ICG’s safety and expanding its clinical utility. On March 12, the company announced it had received regulatory approval in India, Thailand, the Philippines and Bangladesh. This means its products can now be sold in 45 territories, up from 35 in 2024.

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While Tan has kept her “buy” call on this counter, she has lowered her target price from US$2.05 to US$2. Her valuation multiple of 26x FY2026 earnings remains, but she has lowered her forecasts for FY2026 and the coming FY2027 by 3% to account for higher costs from a larger headcount and other spending.

Similarly, the UOB Kay Hian team of analysts, John Cheong, Heidi Mo and Tang Kai Jie, have slightly trimmed their target price for the same reason: higher upfront costs that will eat into the bottom line. From US$2, they now figure the stock is worth US$1.95.

That said, they remain bullish on this stock. “We expect UltraGreen to maintain strong pricing power, supported by its market leadership and the relatively low cost of ICG as a percentage of overall surgical expenses.” Coupled with higher usage volumes, the UOB Kay Hian analysts project revenue between FY2025 and FY2028 to grow at a CAGR of 20% and earnings at 30% over the same period, thanks to “strong industry tailwinds”.

Following the company’s IPO, Hsieh Fu Hua, one of its independent directors and former CEO of the Singapore Exchange, bought shares in two tranches at US$1.39 and US$1.44 were share. Hsieh joins existing investors, including Temasek’s 65 Equity Partners and also UltraGreen chairman Kwa Chong Seng, a former SGX chairman. UltraGreen’s IPO was sold at US$1.45.

With proceeds from the IPO, the company has an ample US$173 million in net cash to serve as dry powder for future expansion. “This provides ample capacity for UltraGreen to fund expansion and deepen market penetration,” state the UOB Kay Hian analysts.

In deriving their target price of US$1.95, the UOB Kay Hian analysts have also applied the same valuation multiple of 26 times FY2026 earnings, which they point out represents a 20% discount to the 32 times average valuation of industry peers. They explain that the discount reflects UltraGreen’s limited trading history and research coverage, which should improve as its track record strengthens.

Cheong, Mo and Tang point out that the company has already built up strong operating metrics, with an estimated 2026 gross margin of 84.5% and adjusted patmi margin of 47.7%, well above peers’ average of 69.6% and 21.1%, respectively. “We expect its continued strong earnings growth, attractive margins and better price discovery to catalyse a valuation re-rating,” they add.

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