Potential disruptions to order processing or fulfilment, particularly for consumables such as the ICG, could drive hospitals to alternative suppliers to avoid procedural delays.
"Given UltraGreen’s dominant share of around 83% of the US ICG vial market, the company is well-positioned to capture incremental demand during this period as healthcare providers prioritise supply reliability," suggest the analysts in their March 18 report.
That aside, UltraGreen recently announced it has won regulatory approvals in India, Thailand, the Philippines and Bangladesh, thereby expanding its addressable market to 45 countries and territories.
"These milestones reinforce UltraGreen’s APAC expansion strategy, strengthening its regional presence and positioning the company to capture rising demand from growing surgical volumes and wider clinical adoption of ICG," says UOB Kay Hian.
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The company, with US$173 million in net cash and an operating cash flow of US$53 million in FY2025, is deemed to have ample dry powder to drive its expansion. In the most recent FY2025, revenue increased by 24% y-o-y to US$142 million, and patmi increased by 14% to US$63.8 million.
This current FY2026, UltraGreen is guiding for revenue of US$170 to US$190 million, with additional sales from more markets, even as it maintains its pricing power.
UOB Kay Hian is projecting earnings to grow at a 30% CAGR between FY2025 and FY2028.
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The brokerage is keeping its "buy" call and US$1.95 target price, which is pegged to 26x FY2026 earnings, which is a discount of 16% to 31x fetched by its peers. "The company’s strong earnings growth, high margins, and improved price discovery should support a valuation re-rating," say the analysts.
Separately, Citi Research has initiated coverage on UltraGreen with a "buy" call and slightly higher target price of US$2. Citi likes this counter for its "high-growth profile", with revenue between FY2022 and FY2025 growing at a 42% CAGR and FY2025 net margin reaching 53%.
Citi notes that UltraGreen is able to command higher prices even as volume grows. In FY2022, the average ICG was sold at US$70.3 per vial. In the subsequent years, the selling price increased steadily to first, US$84.5, then US$123.7 and finally US$139.3 in FY2025.
"We see further room to raise prices given UltraGreen’s dominance in global ICG space and relatively low cost of ICG" as part of overall surgery costs," says Citi.
This coming FY2027, Citi expects further revenue boost and improving gross margins as well with the launch of the UltraGreen Data Platform, which is designed to offer real-time, quantitative perfusion assessment and enhance decision-making in surgeries aided by the use of ICG.
UltraGreen.ai shares closed at US$1.61, up 4.55%.
