(June 13): Stocks rose as SpaceX advanced in its first day of trading, while investors monitored a potential interim peace deal in the Iran conflict.
The S&P 500 Index climbed 0.5% after Pakistan’s prime minister said a “final, agreed upon text of the peace deal has been reached”. Stocks also got a boost after Iran’s foreign minister said a memorandum of understanding “has never been closer” with the US. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index rose 0.6%. Both benchmarks posted weekly gains.
SpaceX closed at US$161.11 ($206.93) after selling for US$150 in its opening trade on Nasdaq, 11% above its US$135 offering price, and climbing as high as US$176.52, or 31% above its offering price.
“Investors are evenly split as to whether the SpaceX IPO marks the peak of an incredible stock-market run or a paradigm-shifting change in how growth is valued in the markets,” said Craig Coben, a managing director at Seda Experts and former global head of equity capital markets at Bank of America Corp.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell around 4% to about US$84 a barrel. It was down all session as the US and Iran were said to be edging toward signing an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on the sidelines of the Group of Seven world leaders summit next week. A US official said midday that “it’s probably more like 80, 85% now, but it’s not 100%” that a deal with Iran will be signed.
“Markets continue to price a deal despite differing term sheets and ongoing drone attacks,” Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said.
See also: SpaceX shares close 19% higher after historic US$75 billion IPO
In economic news, University of Michigan US consumer sentiment readings were better than expected. A preliminary index rose in June for the first time in four months, as lower gasoline prices provided some relief for Americans grappling with a surge in inflation.
A “drop in medium-term inflation expectations takes some pressure off” the Federal Reserve, Pantheon chief US economist Samuel Tombs wrote in a note.
As hopes built toward a potential peace agreement, Iran’s state-run Islamic Republic News Agency, or IRNA, on Friday said the country wouldn’t restore the waterway’s pre-war status, and it’s seeking war-related compensation.
See also: US SEC proposes eliminating equities trade-through rule
“Caution is warranted” around the prospects for an accord, Karl Schamotta, Corpay’s chief market strategist, wrote in a note. However, “even a temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could ease the inflation shock facing global central banks, allowing markets to price in more modest tightening trajectories.”
In single-stocks trading, Adobe Inc shares shed 6.8%, after the software maker said chief financial officer Dan Durn would depart. Durn is headed to Marvell Technology Inc. The news came after Adobe’s chief executive announced he would resign earlier this year.
“You basically have an S&P 500 company operating without a CEO and CFO,” Jefferies trader Jeffrey Favuzza wrote in a note. “Can’t think of any other S&P 500 company where this has happened.”
Next week, investors will focus on Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as chairman of the Federal Reserve, as elevated energy prices lead traders to bet the central bank’s next move will be to raise interest rates by early next year.
“We expect the FOMC to strike a neutral tone under Chair Warsh, with easing language likely removed but no clear tightening bias,” Wells Fargo economists led by Tom Porcelli wrote in a Friday note.
Sectors in Focus
Homebuilders, as Lennar Corp. dropped 4.9% after forecasts trailed expectations, and as CEO Stuart Miller said the latest quarter was “defined by the same stubborn headwinds that have challenged the housing market for the past several years.” He cited “persistently elevated mortgage rates, constrained affordability, and cautious consumer sentiment, exacerbated by geopolitical uncertainty creating a resurgent inflation reading of 4.2% driven by higher energy prices.”
Bank stocks rose with optimism about fees and other income related to SpaceX and upcoming Anthropic and OpenAI mega-IPOs. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley, co-leads on the SpaceX IPO, advanced. Additionally, comments from bank executives this week show “macro resilience persists” with consumers and companies staying positive, Barclays analyst Jason Goldberg wrote in a note. Companies are successfully handling disruptions from “Covid, tariffs, supply chain, Middle East, elevated oil, inflation,” he said.
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