(Jan 14): US retail sales rose in November by the most since July, fuelled by a rebound in auto purchases and resilient holiday shopping.
The value of retail purchases, not adjusted for inflation, increased 0.6% after a downwardly revised 0.1% drop in October, Commerce Department data showed on Wednesday. Excluding cars, sales climbed 0.5%. The report was delayed by the government shutdown.
Ten out of 13 categories posted increases, including sporting goods and hobby stores as well as building materials retailers and clothing outlets. Motor vehicle sales bounced back after the expiration of federal tax incentives on electric cars restrained sales in the prior month. Higher receipts at gasoline stations also contributed to the overall gain.
The holiday shopping season typically picks up steam in November, with retailers offering promotions and discounts on a range of products not only on Black Friday but also in the days before.
| Metric | Actual | Estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Retail sales (MoM) | +0.6% | +0.5% |
| Sales ex. autos (MoM) | +0.5% | +0.4% |
| ‘Control group’ sales (MoM) | +0.4% | +0.4% |
The data suggest consumers took advantage of those deals despite lingering concerns about affordability and their job prospects. While those headwinds are expected to remain top of mind for many middle- and lower-income households in the months ahead, wealthier Americans continue to bolster overall consumption.
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Consumers spent a record-breaking amount online during the holiday season of Nov 1 to Dec 31, cashing in on deals and using Buy Now Pay Later to make purchases, according to Adobe Inc.
Spending at restaurants and bars, the only service-sector category in the retail report, gained 0.6% after falling in the prior month.
GDP contribution
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So-called control-group sales — which feed into the government’s calculation of goods spending for gross domestic product — climbed 0.4% in November after a 0.6% gain in the prior month. The measure — which excludes food services, auto dealers, building materials stores and gasoline stations — bodes well for economic growth at the end of the year.
Before the report, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model suggested household spending would add about two percentage points to fourth-quarter growth, slightly less than the contribution in the previous period.
The figures may have gotten an extra boost from federal workers, who recouped lost wages from the government shutdown.
Since the retail data aren’t adjusted for inflation, a gain in spending could reflect the impact of higher prices rather than stronger demand. Weaker figures could also be reflective of steep holiday discounts. The data largely reflect purchases of goods, which comprise roughly a third of overall household spending.
With regard to prices, inflation data out on Tuesday suggested that the pass-through from tariffs to consumer prices has peaked, according to some economists. That could be supportive of goods spending in the future.
Inflation-adjusted spending data on goods and services for October and November will be released later this month. The November retail report was originally due on Dec 17.
Separate data out on Wednesday showed US wholesale inflation picked up slightly in November from a month earlier on a jump in energy costs.
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