Economists lowered the growth outlook for Singapore and Hong Kong in the second half of this year on increased uncertainties from US President Donald Trump imposing higher tariffs on China’s exports, according to the median of a Bloomberg survey.
Singapore’s growth is likely to slow in the third and fourth quarters at 1.3% and 1.6%, the survey showed. In comparison, growth in the first two quarters is estimated at 4.1% and 3.9% — raised from 3.5% for each period from the December survey. The annual outlook stayed the same at 2.6% though analysts are warning of risks.
“The full-year outlook faces considerable downside risks, especially from rising geopolitical tensions due to higher tariffs and elevated trade policy uncertainty under Trump 2.0,” said Han Teng Chua, senior economist at DBS Bank.
Singapore and Hong Kong are among the most exposed to China’s economy via commodity and trade links.
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Hong Kong’s growth outlook was cut by economists for the last two quarters of the year to 2.6% and 2.4% from 3.2% and 3.1% previously, according to the survey. Forecasts for the first two quarters were raised by almost 0.5 percentage points to 1.7% and 1.8%.
The government estimates 2025 growth at 2%-3% and Eric Zhu of Bloomberg Economics expects the economy to expand near the lower end of the official projection.
“That would mark a second straight year of slowing growth,” Zhu said. “The risks are tilted to the downside due to China’s weak demand and escalation in the US-China tensions during the second Trump term.”
