The 20 economists and analysts who responded to the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) December 2025 survey of professional forecasters have raised their 2025 GDP estimate to 4.1%. This marks a sharp increase from the estimates posited in the June and September surveys of 1.7% and 2.4% respectively.
The higher estimate is due to upgrades seen across all major sectors. Manufacturing is expected to expand by 5.4%, up from 0.8%; finance & insurance at 4.1% y-o-y from 3.3%; construction up at 4.8% from 4.7%; wholesale & retail trade at 4.4% from 2.9%; and accommodation & food services at 0.9% from 0.5%. Private consumption is expected to expand by 3.8% y-o-y from 3.1% previously, while non-oil domestic exports is expected to expand by 4.5% from 2.2% before.
In 3Q2025, the Singapore economy expanded by 4.2% y-o-y, which exceeded the respondents’ median forecast of 0.9%. As such, the respondents expect Singapore’s GDP to grow by 3.6% in 4Q2025.
According to the survey, the Singapore economy is most likely to grow by 4% to 4.4% in 2025 with a probability of 79%, compared to 2% to 2.4% in the previous survey. The standard deviation of the forecasts has also decreased compared to the previous survey, while the distribution has become more negatively skewed.
In 2025, the respondents expect Singapore’s CPI-All Items inflation (or headline inflation) to come in at 0.9%, unchanged since the June survey. The latest median forecast for MAS core inflation is 0.7% unchanged from the September survey.
Based on the respondents’ estimates, headline inflation is most likely to come in at 0.5% to 0.9%, similar to the previous survey but with a higher probability of 72% from 59%. Similarly, core inflation is most likely to come in at 0.5% to 0.9%, unchanged from the previous survey. The probability also remained broadly unchanged.
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Headline and core inflation came in at 0.6% and 0.4% y-o-y in 3Q2025, 0.2 percentage points lower than the respondents’ forecasts in the September survey.
This time, respondents expect Singapore’s headline and core inflation to come at 1.1% and 1.0% respectively in 4Q2025.
In terms of the labour market, respondents expect the unemployment rate to be 2% at the end of the year, down from the 2.2% in the September survey.
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Other forecasts include the exchange rate between the Singapore dollar (SGD) and the US dollar (USD), which is expected to reach 1.29 in December, up from 1.285 in September. The Singapore overnight rate average (Sora) is estimated to reach 1.4% in December, down from the September survey estimate of 1.71%. Bank loans are expected to grow by 4.5% by the year-end in the December survey, up from 3.1% estimated in the September survey.
Geopolitical risks, AI bubble burst flagged as downsides
In the December survey, geopolitical risks were the most cited downside risk to the outlook for the Singapore economy. Respondents also flagged the burst of the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble with spillovers to the financial markets and an external slowdown as a potential risk.
On the flip side, a sustained AI-led tech cycle upturn was identified by 76% of respondents as an upside risk. Resilient global growth and the easing of trade tensions were also cited as key upside risks.
No monetary policy shift expected in January and April 2026
Nearly all of the respondents polled say they do not expect any shifts in MAS’s monetary policy in the January 2026 and April 2026 policy reviews, while 11% of the respondents anticipate tightening in the July 2026 review via an increase in the slope of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate index (S$NEER) policy band. This marks a contrast to the previous survey, where none of the respondents expected any policy tightening in the first three reviews of 2026.
In 2026, the respondents expect Singapore’s GDP to grow by 2.3% on average, with the most probable outcome for growth in the ranges of 2% to 2.4% and 2.5% to 2.9%, up from the previous range of 1.5% to 1.9%.
The median forecasts of both headline and core inflation are at 1.5% and 1.3% for 2026.
