“We expect Brent to stay above US$70 a barrel in coming months,” but “we no longer see US$70 as the price floor,” head of commodities research Daan Struyven wrote. Brent futures are currently hovering around US$71.
Goldman’s revision follows downgrades in recent weeks by Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp., which both see Brent in the high US$60s during the second half.
Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase & Co have been predicting prices would end the year in the mid-or-low US$60s for some time. Beyond Wall Street, top oil trading houses such as Vitol Group and Gunvor Group — which have had a bullish stance on crude in recent years — also turned more pessimistic.
Oil’s retreat has been cheered by US President Donald Trump and offers relief for consumers and central banks following years of rampant inflation. But it poses financial risks for producers in the American shale oil industry and for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, led by Saudi Arabia.
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Citigroup has long been the most bearish of the pack, projecting that crude will average US$60 a barrel in the second and third quarters before sinking further to US$55 in the fourth.
Wall Street’s preliminary assessments for next year suggest little scope for upside, with JPMorgan anticipating that crude will average US$61 a barrel — and may even touch US$50 as Trump pushes to keep sanctioned Russian and Iranian barrels in the market.
