Goldman Sachs Group flagged the possibility of higher oil and gas prices after the US struck Iran, even as the bank’s base-case outlook hinges on major disruptions to supplies from the region.
If oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were to drop by half for a month, and remained 10% lower for another 11, Brent would spike briefly to as much as US$110 ($141.81) a barrel, analysts including Daan Struyven said in a note.
Should Iranian supply fall by 1.75 million barrels a day, Brent would peak at US$90.
The global oil market is trying to figure out the likely trajectory for energy prices as the crisis in the Middle East escalates. Crude futures are presently near US$79 a barrel, having surged in early Asian trading after the US hit three Iranian nuclear sites at the weekend.
Brent then pared some of its gains, with a renewed focus that actual flows are so far unhindered.
“The economic incentives, including for the US and China, to try to prevent a sustained and very large disruption of the Strait of Hormuz would be strong,” the analysts said.
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The bank still assumes there’ll be no significant disruptions to flows, although “the downside risks to energy supply and the upside risk to our energy price forecasts have risen”, they said.
Natural-gas markets are also seen at risk. European benchmark futures — known as the Title Transfer Facility, or TTF — may possibly rise closer to EUR74 ($109.73) per megawatt hours or about US$25 per million British thermal units, a level that hurt demand during the 2022 European energy crisis, the analysts said.
A hypothetical, large and sustained disruption of the strait would push natural gas toward EUR100 a megawatt hour, they said. The waterway connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean, and is a vital conduit for energy.
