(March 25): Buyers are snapping up Russian crude shipments after the US waived sanctions but are taking a more cautious approach to Iranian cargoes.
The Trump administration temporarily lifted restrictions on oil from Russia and then Iran earlier this month to combat the surge in energy prices caused by the war in the Middle East. But the short duration of the waivers and compliance concerns mean flows are unlikely to normalise. The move has also drawn criticism from US allies worried it could weaken pressure on Moscow and Tehran.
Some 18 tankers, carrying about 13.5 million barrels of Russian crude east of Suez, are likely available for purchase, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s down from 25 vessels holding about 19 million barrels nearly two weeks ago, when the waiver was broadened. The decline comes even as additional cargoes have entered the region after leaving the Suez Canal.
Most of the vessels are signalling “for orders", indicating no fixed buyers. One is showing its destination is near Singapore — a common holding area for sales. Seven of the tankers are carrying Russia’s flagship Urals crude, a grade similar to much of the Middle Eastern oil affected by the war.
In contrast, Iranian floating storage has largely held near 27 million barrels since its waiver on Friday, according to Vortexa Ltd. State-owned firms in China and India are holding back, citing hurdles around payment, insurance and finding compliant ships. Floating storage typically refers to tankers idled at sea for at least a week. It’s used as an indicator of availability, although it excludes vessels in transit that may be carrying unsold cargoes.
“I would expect countries to be more hesitant to buy Iranian oil under US waivers than Russian oil,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Singapore consultancy Vanda Insights. “There could be quality concerns and questions around the payment mechanism, which is not the case with Russian oil.”
See also: Oil drops on reports of US diplomatic push to end war with Iran
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