(Nov 12): Opec flipped estimates for global oil markets in the third quarter from a deficit to a surplus, as US production exceeded expectations while the group itself ramped up supplies.
World oil output exceeded demand by 500,000 barrels a day during the period, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its latest monthly report, compared with a 400,000-barrel shortfall estimated a month ago.
The group’s Vienna-based secretariat raised estimates for supplies outside Opec and its allies in the period by 890,000 barrels a day, with just over half of the change driven by the US.
The report published Wednesday also indicated that the Opec+ alliance pumped more crude than it estimated was needed last quarter. Saudi Arabia has steered the coalition to fast-track the revival of halted supply this year in a bid to reclaim global market share.
This month, key members showed their first signs of slowing that strategy, agreeing to pause further production increases during the first quarter of 2026. The organisation cited a seasonal demand slowdown, though many analysts warn of a significant oversupply in global markets.
Oil futures have declined about 14% this year in London to trade near US$65 a barrel.
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Opec boosted estimates for total US liquids production in the third quarter to 22.81 million barrels a day, from 22.27 million a day last month.
The overall change to non-Opec+ supplies in 2025 is much more modest, at just 110,000 barrels a day, as a result of downward revisions to other quarters.
Surplus next year
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Heading into 2026, Opec’s data does indicate a surplus, though on a more moderate scale than other forecasters. The alliance would need to produce 42.6 million barrels a day during the first quarter to balance global demand, less than the 43 million it pumped in October.
Earlier on Wednesday, Opec’s secretariat hailed a shift by its counterparts at the International Energy Agency, which acknowledged in an annual long-term report that oil demand could continue to increase for several decades.
The IEA, which in recent years has predicted consumption will stop growing this decade, has had a “rendezvous with reality,” Opec said.
The eight Opec+ members currently engaged in supply adjustments, and the full 22-nation coalition, will hold meetings to review policy on Nov 30.
Uploaded by Magessan Varatharaja
