This runs counter to prevailing industry expectations for a supply excess in 2026. Top trader Trafigura Group said this week it could amount to a “super glut,” and the International Energy Agency — while paring its projections in its report earlier Thursday — continues to project a record overhang.
Key Opec+ nations led by Saudi Arabia acknowledged the fragile backdrop last month by agreeing to pause further output increases during the first quarter after rapidly ramping up production earlier this year.
The outlook from Opec’s Vienna-based secretariat has proven excessively bullish in recent years. Last year, Opec was ultimately forced to slash demand projections by 32% over the course of six monthly downgrades. In late 2023, it forecast a record inventory deficit that never materialised.
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