The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on Saturday to increase supply targets by 411,000 barrels a day for July, matching increases scheduled for May and June. The hikes marked a radical reversal from the cartel’s former strategy of defending prices by curbing output.
The decision likely also reflected a move toward normalising spare capacity within OPEC+, supporting internal cohesion and putting pressure on US shale producers, Goldman said.
The Wall Street giant now expects the cartel to hold supply quotas steady from September, forecasting production outside the group will increase and global economic growth will slow in the third quarter.
However, risks are skewed toward further OPEC+ increases after August, the bank said.
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Goldman maintained its average oil price forecasts for Brent at US$60 a barrel for the remainder of the year and US$56 in 2026. West Texas Intermediate is seen at a US$4 discount to the global benchmark for the periods.
