Global CEOs and institutional investors are heading into 2026 with confidence in growth, dealmaking and hiring, even as they brace for higher capital costs, geopolitical uncertainty and a tougher debate over whether corporate AI spend is paying off.
That is the picture from Teneo’s Vision 2026 CEO and Investor Outlook Survey, based on responses from more than 350 CEOs of global public companies and 400 institutional investors representing about US$19 trillion of company and portfolio value. The research was conducted between Oct 14 and Nov 10 this year.
Overall, 73% of CEOs and 82% of investors expect the global economy to improve over the first six months of 2026. Optimism is slightly softer than a year earlier, and the split between large and mid-sized companies is widening. Teneo notes that large-cap CEO confidence has fallen 20 points y-o-y, while mid-cap executives and investors remain “overwhelmingly positive”. In the report, mid-cap CEOs are also the most bullish cohort, with 80% expecting improvement in the first half of 2026 versus 31% for large-cap executives.
Teneo’s CEO Paul Keary points to a combination of post-election sentiment in the US and a belief that companies have built more resilience into their operating models. “Following record CEO and investor confidence in the wake of the US elections last year, we continue to see optimism for 2026 with most expecting at least a short-term increase in hiring as well as increased M&A activity and international and domestic investment,” he says. He adds that “The US remains the most attractive market in the world for investment”.
On investment destinations, the survey underlines how the US still dominates CEO attention, while Asia-Pacific remains a priority. When CEOs are asked which regional markets are attractive investment opportunities for 2026, 89% cite the US and 82% cite Asia-Pacific. Canada (75%), Continental Europe and Ireland (74%), the Middle East (74%) and the UK (73%) follow.
Still, confidence is not uniform across the capital stack. CEOs and investors are positive on the “funding potential of equity capital markets” and the “affordability of current debt levels”, but both groups are more cautious about access to debt markets. Christian Buss, Teneo’s co-head of investor relations, flags stress building at the lower end of credit. “On the margins, debt markets remain open, but there is more stress in the system than there has been in many years,” he says.
“It’s a tricky environment, with constraints at the lower end of the credit market and pressures that are percolating through the system where there is outsized exposure to lower income consumers,” adds Buss.
That interest-rate reality matters for M&A, which remains a bright spot in the survey. Some 78% of CEOs and 77% of investors expect more M&A activity in 2026, down slightly from 2025 but still elevated. The biggest barrier is cost of capital, with both camps citing high capital costs as the primary headwind to execution. Against that backdrop, Teneo also finds expectations of rising activism: 72% of CEOs and 76% of investors globally anticipate an increase in investor activism through 2026.
If M&A sentiment is strong, globalisation sentiment is more complicated. CEOs (60%) and investors (57%) agree that deglobalisation is accelerating , though perceptions vary by region. The report suggests Latin America-based CEOs feel the shift most acutely, as supply chains realign around the US and Europe , while some leaders in MENA and APAC see the same forces moving more slowly. Lauren Chung, CEO of Teneo’s Asia-Pacific Strategy & Communications, argues the change is structural but not simply a retreat. “I believe what we're seeing is not necessarily the deceleration of globalisation, but globalisation changing shape,” she says.
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Within Asia, the survey points to a long-term recalibration between China and India. Today, 33% of CEOs rate China as “extremely important” to business strategy, versus 41% for India. Looking 10 years out, 47% of CEOs expect India to be “extremely important”, overtaking China in that measure. Yet the report also stresses that China remains central over the long term, given the scale of its middle class, supply chains and R&D investment, while Chung says: “China’s business is defined by a relentless drive to adapt, lead and innovate,”.
Where the tension is most visible is AI. Teneo expects global AI spending to top US$2 trillion in 2026 , and its survey suggests the corporate push is accelerating: 68% of CEOs plan to increase AI investment in 2026. Ursula Burns, Teneo’s chairwoman, frames this as a capability build as much as a technology spend. “AI spending is set to rise again in 2026, with 68% of CEOs planning to increase their investment,” she says. “Along with that investment, an increase in new skilled hires across all seniority levels will help deliver on corporate AI ambitions. Investors, however, are becoming increasingly impatient for ROI on these AI investments, creating a tension that will be important to watch in the year ahead.”
That impatience shows up in timelines. Over half of investors (53%) expect positive returns from new AI initiatives in six months or less, while only 16% of large-cap CEOs think that is achievable. CEOs also report that fewer than half of current AI projects have delivered tangible ROI, though they see the biggest gains in internal efficiency, administrative work and customer-facing applications.
The workforce impacts, at least in the near term, are more about reshaping than shrinking. Teneo finds most CEOs expect AI to drive increased hiring in 2026: 67% say AI is increasing entry-level headcount and 58% expect an expansion of senior leadership roles. The top talent priorities are increasing AI and automation to augment the workforce (50%) and upskilling staff (46%). Ryan Cox, Teneo’s global head of artificial intelligence, says: “It’s not that AI is wiping out the workforce today — it’s reshaping it.”
