(April 15): US President Donald Trump indicated he may be preparing to wind down the war with Iran, boosting market optimism and restoring some stability to global energy prices.
Peace talks with the Islamic Republic might restart “over the next two days”, the New York Post cited the president as saying. In a separate interview with ABC News, he said extending a two-week ceasefire that was clinched last week after nearly six weeks of fighting may not be necessary, hinting at significant near-term progress without elaborating.
“I think you are going to be watching an amazing two days ahead,” Trump told ABC. “I really do.”
In a Fox Business interview, he said he sees the war as “close to over”.
There are signs Tehran is also trying to avoid escalation, with authorities considering a pause in shipments through the strategic Strait of Hormuz to avoid testing a US blockade and jeopardising fresh negotiations.
The shift in the narrative from Washington — from announcing a total blockade of Hormuz to expectations of a possible breakthrough — has left many questions unanswered, including the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium. Israel maintains the material must be removed, while Trump said he wasn’t pleased about reports that the US had demanded that Iran agree to a two-decade moratorium on enrichment because it could never be allowed to have nuclear weapons.
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Trump’s upbeat assessment of what may come next nonetheless boosted global market sentiment, with stocks rallying and several major indices erasing declines since the war began in February. Oil recouped some losses on Wednesday, a day after slumping.
Trump didn’t commit to whether the US would remain in negotiations to secure a deal with Iran, or to withdrawing military forces without a peace plan.
“It could end either way, but I think a deal is preferable because then they can rebuild,” he told ABC News. “They really do have a different regime now. No matter what, we took out the radicals.”
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Several senior Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, have been killed in US-Israeli strikes.
The US is pressing ahead its blockade of Hormuz to curb the Islamic Republic’s oil exports, with US Centcom saying it’s been fully implemented after going into effect on Monday.
The navy has been impeding traffic outside the strait in the Gulf of Oman and appears to have forced some carriers, including the US-sanctioned Rich Starry, to make a U-turn back towards the Persian Gulf. An Iraq-bound supertanker is now sailing through the waterway, a transit that would make it the first crude carrier to head west through the conduit since the US blockade began.
An Iranian supertanker, which can carry two million barrels of oil and is sanctioned by the US, sailed through the strait into Iranian waters despite the blockade, Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency reported, without identifying the vessel. The passage wasn’t confirmed by the US.
The US is using more than a dozen vessels to enforce the blockade. They include the USS Tripoli amphibious assault ship, accompanied by F-35 jets and Marine vessels for boarding operations, as well as the USS Canberra littoral combat ship that could help clear sea mines.
The Trump administration will allow a waiver that temporarily authorises the purchase of certain Iranian crude oil to expire this weekend, the Treasury Department said. A similar waiver for Russian crude, part of efforts to ease global energy shocks from the war, lapsed last week.
China’s CSI 300 Index became the latest gauge to recoup losses since the conflict started on Feb 28, joining Taiwan and Singapore. Wall Street benchmarks have already reclaimed those levels, with the S&P 500 closing in on its record high set in late January. Optimism that the US and Iran will enter further negotiations is also helping to keep oil below US$100 ($127.11) a barrel.
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Still, retail US gasoline and diesel prices are at their highest seasonal levels ever, a pain point for consumers ahead of summer travel.
The war has damaged Gulf energy infrastructure and disrupted oil and gas supplies beyond the region, rattling markets and triggering fears of a global inflation crisis. About one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas was shipped through Hormuz before the war started.
Surging prices of products such as jet fuel and gasoline are already squeezing consumers, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday, pointing towards the first annual decline in global oil demand since 2020.
US Vice President JD Vance, speaking at an event on Tuesday, said that while there was progress in talks, Trump doesn’t want to make “a small deal, he wants to make the grand bargain”. Vance led the US delegation in direct negotiations with Iran in Pakistan over the weekend, but left after they failed to yield an agreement.
Switzerland has offered to support diplomatic efforts, having hosted earlier talks on Iran’s nuclear programme before the war began.
Fighting has largely paused since the truce was announced on April 7, except in Lebanon, where Israel continues operations against Iran-backed Hezbollah. Talks between Israel and Lebanon began on Tuesday in Washington to address the parallel conflict, which has killed more than 2,000 people, according to Lebanese authorities.
The discussions are separate from US-Iran negotiations and are part of a broader effort to curb Iran’s influence through Hezbollah.
Israel’s spy chief pledged more covert efforts to try to topple Iran’s government, suggesting the countries’ conflict will continue even if the US agrees to a peace deal. “Our mission has yet to be completed,” David Barnea, the head of Mossad, said in a speech.
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