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Abivax pares gains as speculation over a takeover whipsaws

Naomi Kresge / Bloomberg
Naomi Kresge / Bloomberg • 4 min read
Abivax pares gains as speculation over a takeover whipsaws
Abivax stock had earlier surged by as much as 33% in Paris trading, after France’s La Lettre reported that Lilly is ready to offer €15 billion to buy the firm but is waiting for the French Finance Ministry's reply. (Photo by Bloomberg)
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(Jan 13): Abivax SA’s shares pared gains after France’s finance ministry said it has not been contacted by Eli Lilly & Co about a possible bid for the French biotech.

Abivax stock had earlier surged by as much as 33% in Paris trading, after France’s La Lettre reported that Lilly is ready to offer €15 billion to buy the firm but is waiting for the French Finance Ministry to indicate if a takeover would be subject to foreign investment controls.

However, on Monday, the ministry said it had not received a dossier for investment screening from Lilly and is not in contact with the US company best known for making the weight-loss drug Zepbound. In the case of strategic pharmaceutical companies, such a request for screening would be obligatory, the ministry said.

Abivax is entering a pivotal year, with a slate of clinical trial results expected for the experimental drug obefazimod. The view that the company would make an attractive acquisition target has helped drive up Abivax’s shares by some 1900% in the past 12 months.

Abivax chief executive officer Marc de Garidel said treasury review is necessary in France and generally takes about three months, speaking in an interview with Bloomberg. He declined to comment on whether Abivax had been approached by Lilly.

Abivax was trading at €102 a share at 4.15pm in Paris, up about 4%.

See also: Pirelli in talks with Sinochem to reduce its stake to 10% — Bloomberg

Kepler Cheuvreux increased its price target on Abivax on Monday to the highest among analysts tracked by Bloomberg, citing “stronger commercial conviction”. Abivax has become a “highly attractive late-stage M&A target” and the stock could “reasonably trade” at €150 to €250 per share in a takeover scenario, according to analyst Justine Telliez.

Major pharmaceutical companies can’t ignore the potential of Abivax’s experimental inflammatory bowel disease drug, as the industry looks to replace hundreds of billions of dollars in sales set to evaporate due to patent losses, said de Garidel in San Francisco, where drugmakers and biotech firms are convening in the city for the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference.

“If you are Big Pharma, you cannot ignore that this product may be one of the most-used products in the next decade,” he said.

See also: CEO of Castel Group fights bid by billionaire founder’s heirs to oust him

His comments come as the industry braces for treatments with US$303 billion in annual sales to lose patent protection between 2026 and 2031, according to an RA Capital report. The scramble to replenish pipelines helped fuel US$130 billion in biopharma dealmaking in 2025, more than double the prior year.

Results from a late-stage trial of obefazimod in ulcerative colitis will come late in the second quarter, the company said this month. Abivax is seeking to show that the compound can keep patients in remission. If the trial succeeds, Abivax would file for regulatory approval in the US late this year and aim to start selling the drug in the third quarter of 2027, de Garidel said.

Abivax will seek a partner to market the drug outside the US, he said, adding that President Donald Trump’s push to align American drug costs with those in other wealthy nations will play a role in those talks.

Prices in the US are typically higher, and many in the industry have warned that new medicines may be priced higher overseas in order to bolster American pricing.

“We are not going to jeopardise the US market for other jurisdictions,” de Garidel said, saying that Abivax had taken risks and invested US$350 million in a late-stage trial. “We can’t have US prices affected by countries who don’t want to reward the work of Abivax.”

Sofinnova Partners, a major investor in Abivax, said earlier this month that it would sell a portion of its stake in the company. De Garidel said the holding had existed for some time and that the firm needed to return some money to its shareholders.

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