(April 11): Wall Street traders bracing for talks between the US and Iran halted a rally in stocks as oil whipsawed on Friday, with the negotiations set to dictate the path ahead for a fragile ceasefire.
While the S&P 500 saw its best week since November, the gauge lost steam after a seven-day advance. Earlier gains were driven by roughly in-line inflation data. US crude settled below US$97 ($123.59), posting its biggest weekly slide since 2020. Treasury yields rose. The dollar barely budged.
US President Donald Trump sought to ratchet up pressure on Iran to cut a deal in Pakistan this weekend, with the New York Post reporting the US is preparing the military if peace talks fail.
While the two-week ceasefire was broadly holding across the Middle East, the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon threatened to complicate negotiations.
“The focus in the short term will remain on what happens in Iran,” said veteran strategist Louis Navellier. “If it unwinds and the missiles fly again, we will certainly see some downside volatility again.”
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Investors also parsed the first inflation snapshot of the war-fuelled spike in energy costs. While consumer prices jumped the most since 2022, the core measure was relatively tame.
“There are no signs, yet, that high energy prices are seeping into core inflation,” said Brian Jacobsen at Annex Wealth Management. “That could be a process that plays out over time as companies absorb the brunt of the blow, at least initially.”
Given the global situation and strong earnings growth, some investors may view the current inflation data as manageable and expect energy pressures to moderate, according to David Russell at TradeStation.
See also: Oil trims gain, Asian stocks rise before Iran talks
“But a resolution to the Hormuz crisis will be key to improvement,” he added.
Meantime, earnings season starts Monday with Goldman Sachs Group Inc, followed by JPMorgan Chase & Co, Citigroup Inc, Wells Fargo & Co, Bank of America Corp and Morgan Stanley later in the week. They are expected to post solid results as market volatility lifted trading activity.
Corporate highlights:
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell summoned Wall Street leaders to an urgent meeting on concerns that the latest artificial intelligence (AI) model from Anthropic PBC will usher in an era of greater cyber risk.
- Anthropic agreed to tap data centre capacity from CoreWeave Inc as part of efforts to handle increasing demand for its AI services.
- Ares Management Corp is planning a significantly smaller flagship US direct lending fund than its previous record-breaking vehicle of US$33.6 billion to speed up the deployment of capital amid broader dislocations in private markets.
- Berkshire Hathaway Inc sold JPY272.3 billion (US$1.7 billion or $2.2 billion) of yen-denominated bonds, marking its first such deal since Warren Buffett stepped down as its chief executive officer.
- US regulators denied Replimune Group Inc’s skin cancer treatment for a second time, a sign that they are maintaining their tough stance on drug reviews.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
- The S&P 500 was down 0.1% as of 4pm New York time on Friday
- The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1%
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%
- The MSCI World Index was little changed
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Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
- The euro rose 0.3% to US$1.1729
- The British pound rose 0.2% to US$1.3469
- The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 159.29 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin rose 1.2% to US$73,274.12
- Ether rose 1.9% to US$2,254.65
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.32%
- Germany’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 3.06%
- Britain’s 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 4.84%
Commodities
- West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.9% to US$96 a barrel
- Spot gold fell 0.2% to US$4,756.35 an ounce
Uploaded by Tham Yek Lee
