(Dec 18): Norway’s central bank kept borrowing costs unchanged for a second meeting and said it’s in no rush to move lower.
Norges Bank left the key deposit rate at 4% on Thursday, a decision that was predicted by all 18 analysts in a Bloomberg survey. It said borrowing costs “will be reduced further in the course of the coming year,” sticking to its wording from last month.
“We are not in a hurry to reduce the policy rate,” Governor Ida Wolden Bache said in a statement. “The interest rate outlook is little changed” since September and “we do not envisage a large reduction in the policy rate ahead”.
Norway’s sticky underlying inflation, at 3%, has prompted officials to adopt a more cautious approach to easing since September, with one quarter-point cut per year penciled in through 2028. Most analysts surveyed by Bloomberg last month forecast a reduction in the second quarter. After the decision, traders in overnight swaps further pared bets on that happening.
The Norwegian kroner rallied after the decision, gaining 0.2% to 11.9557 per euro and rebounding from an eight-month low of 12.0135 hit in the run-up to the announcement.
The kroner has struggled versus the euro this year, sliding roughly 2% as traders have been betting that sluggish economic growth is likely to keep Norges Bank on course to continue cutting rates in the coming months. It has rallied nearly 12% versus the broadly weaker dollar in 2025.
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The mainland economy is decelerating, with the growth outlook for next year lowered to 1.3% from a prior 1.5% projection. Underlying inflation is slowing a touch more than previously expected, with a 2.7% pace forecast for 2026.
“The kroner exchange rate has depreciated since the September Report and contributes to raising inflation prospects somewhat going forward,” officials said. “If the policy rate is lowered too quickly, inflation could remain above target for too long.”
The Riksbank of neighbouring Sweden also left rates unchanged at 1.75% earlier on Thursday, signalling an extended pause. Later in the day, the European Central Bank is anticipated to stay on hold at 2% while the Bank of England is widely expected to reduce borrowing costs to 3.75%.
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