(Feb 20): More than half of Canadians say the US currently poses the greatest threat to their country’s security, a stark indicator of how wide the perceived rift has become between the historically close allies.
A survey conducted by Nanos Research Group for Bloomberg News found 55% of respondents believed the US poses the most risk to Canada’s security of any country. Some 15% of respondents said China was the greatest threat, followed by 14% who pointed to Russia.
The poll was taken from Jan 31 to Feb 4, shortly after US President Donald Trump made a series of threats against Greenland, publicly complained about Nato and said he would be prepared to increase tariffs further on Canada.
Trump’s trade policy, as well as his occasional musings about Canada becoming a 51st US state, have sparked widespread anger in the northern nation. Long Canada’s most important ally, the US has become a place to avoid for many Canadians, and cross-border travel has dropped sharply.
US is 3.5 times more likely to be seen as greatest threat than China, Roland Paris, a professor of international affairs at the University of Ottawa who once advised former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on foreign policy, said the survey’s findings underscore the “dominant mood” in Canada right now.
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“They help to explain why Canadians have continued to boycott US travel and goods even a year after Trump returned to office and started talking about making Canada the 51st state,” Paris said in an email.
“Some may view Trump’s rhetorical style and economic threats as a smart negotiating strategy, but these results show what profound damage they are having on important relationships.”
There’s a gender divide on the issue. Women were more likely to say the US poses the greatest foreign threat to national security, with 64% saying so compared with 45% of men, Nanos said.
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Prime Minister Mark Carney attempted to deescalate the trade war with the US following his election victory in April, and he and Trump exchanged warm words in the Oval Office soon after. But talks between Ottawa and Washington have failed to bring a deal to lower tariffs on steel, aluminium or automobiles, and those negotiations have been stalled for months.
In a now-famous address at the World Economic Forum last month, Carney called on peer countries to band together to resist coercion from aggressive superpowers. While he didn’t name Trump, the speech was arguably the prime minister’s most direct rebuke of American foreign policy.
Trump noticed. The next day at Davos, he said of Canada: “They should be grateful also but they’re not. I watched your prime minister yesterday, he wasn’t so grateful.” The president also said, “Canada lives because of the United States.”
Carney unveiled a defence-industrial strategy this week to direct more of the country’s growing military budget to domestic firms rather than US contractors. In a speech, he said Canada has long relied too heavily on “our geography and others to protect us.”
“This has created vulnerabilities we can no longer afford and dependencies we can no longer sustain,” Carney said.
Trump’s tariffs have also pushed Canada closer to China. The two countries agreed on a deal to lower tariffs on Chinese electric cars and Canadian food products. His government is also seeking Chinese joint-venture auto investment — an unthinkable step before Trump returned to the White House.
The poll of 1,009 Canadians was conducted online and over the phone. The results are accurate plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Uploaded by Evelyn Chan
