(May 30): The White House has repeatedly sent conflicting messages on the prospects for a deal with Iran, highlighting President Donald Trump’s struggles to find an off-ramp to a conflict now in its fourth month.
That pattern continued on Friday.
Trump said in a social media post late in the morning that he was ready to make a “final determination” on a preliminary agreement to extend a fragile ceasefire. However, a roughly two-hour meeting in the Situation Room on Friday concluded without any announcement from the president, according to a White House official who requested anonymity to discuss private talks.
Trump will only make a deal that satisfies his redlines, the official said, referring to the president’s demands that Iran must abandon its nuclear programme, give up its enriched uranium supplies and open the Strait of Hormuz.
The back-and-forth continued a pattern of both sides suggesting an agreement was near, but then signalling disagreement over many of the same issues that have long bedevilled a deal, including the fate of Iran’s uranium and nuclear ambitions as well as freedom of navigation of the critical waterway.
Traders have been whipsawed by abrupt turns in rhetoric, but hopes that a ceasefire deal could pave the way for an end to the Iran conflict helped drive stocks towards a historic streak of weekly gains.
See also: US, Iran reach deal on extended ceasefire pending Trump approval
Still, investors face the danger that their expectations will be upended by yet another change in direction from Trump. There’s an “uncertainty discount” at play, said Kevin Book, managing director at ClearView Energy Partners, a Washington-based consulting firm, with markets facing “the challenge of going into a weekend not knowing what the president is going to say”.
Trump has no public events on his schedule for Friday. He’s shown a penchant for launching military strikes and other significant announcements after US markets close and on weekends. Much of the Middle East has been observing the Eid holiday this week.
In his post on Friday, Trump repeated demands that Iran never develop nuclear weapons and reopen Hormuz without tolls. But he did not say whether Iran had agreed.
See also: US, Iran agree to extend truce pending Trump backing, report says
The post merely highlighted the uncertainty clouding negotiations in recent days. On Thursday, US officials confirmed that negotiators had reached a memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and launch further talks on the nuclear issue, pending Trump’s approval.
Yet just hours after that confirmation, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declined from the White House podium to even acknowledge a tentative deal. Vice-President JD Vance later told reporters the sides were “going back and forth on a couple of language points”.
Bessent outlined three “red lines” as prerequisites for any agreement: Iran reopening Hormuz, surrendering its highly enriched uranium and ending its nuclear programme. Yet even on those sticking points, Trump has sent mixed messages on whether and how he might compromise.
On Hormuz, Trump previously said Iran and the US could manage its traffic in a joint venture. This week, Trump said emphatically no one country would control the strait but that the US would “watch over” it. On Iran’s nuclear programme, Trump has said he would accept only a permanent suspension. More recently, he told reporters a 20-year halt to the programme would be “enough”.
Iran’s side of the talks have also remained opaque. Earlier Friday, Iranian state media said the MOU wasn’t finalised and had changed in recent days. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said they had “no trust in guarantees or words” and that “no action will be taken before the other side acts”.
Trump has insisted he won’t be rushed into a bad deal, even as he denies that war isn’t the military quagmire he’s long warned against. The conflict he’s called an “excursion” has well surpassed the initial four- to six-week timeline administration officials initially projected.
Trump is facing pressure to end the war, with polls showing Americans disapprove of the conflict and soaring gasoline prices amplifying worries about his economic agenda. In public, the president has said he doesn’t care about the political strains as he seeks to gain leverage in talks with Iran.
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For all the mismatched rhetoric, there is a broad understanding Trump alone will make the final call. “Everything depends on what the president wants to do,” Bessent said.
(Updates with White House official remarks starting in the third paragraph.)
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