(May 12): The ceasefire between the US and Iran reached a particularly precarious moment on Monday as President Donald Trump said the agreement was on “massive life support” after he rejected Tehran’s latest peace offer.
Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, Trump called Iran’s response to his proposal a “piece of garbage” and said he “didn’t even finish reading it”.
Iran responded to last week’s US peace proposal by demanding a lifting of Washington’s naval blockade and sanctions relief, while maintaining a degree of control over traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, according to a person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive information.
Trump didn’t indicate whether the US would resume military attacks on Iran as he previously has threatened if the Islamic Republic’s leadership didn’t agree to his terms. Trump told Fox News earlier on Monday that he’s looking at reviving a plan to escort ships through the vital waterway.
Still, when asked about reaching a diplomatic solution, Trump said it was “very possible”. The US leader also repeated his claim, without evidence, that Iranian leaders “intend to give us the nuclear dust”.
There’s been no such public indication during the war to date that Tehran is about to back down, including on its insistence on maintaining a nuclear programme.
See also: US, Iran wrangle over terms of deal to end war and reopen Hormuz Strait
The developments marked the latest failure by Trump to engineer a resolution to the 10-week war, which touched off a global energy crisis and continues to pose grave domestic political risks for him and his Republican party. The conflict also has strained relations with China, with Trump slated to meet President Xi Jinping in Beijing later this week.
“There’s no pressure at all,” Trump insisted on Monday. “We are going to have a complete victory.”
Oil prices rose, with Brent crude ending the session around US$104 ($132.37) a barrel after Trump said the ceasefire with Iran was on life support. The administration is also mulling pulling the final levers it had to ease the pain for consumers from rising energy costs. On Monday, Trump voiced support for a gasoline tax holiday.
See also: Nato nations bracing for Trump to pull more troops from Europe — Bloomberg
Tehran has also insisted that any agreement result in an immediate end to fighting, including in Lebanon, where Israel is waging a parallel war against the militant group Hezbollah, the person said. The conflict has killed thousands of people across the Middle East and upended oil and gas markets.
Trump was to meet with his national security team on Monday to discuss the war, including possible resumption of military action, Axios reported, citing three US officials.
As the stand-off continued, The Wall Street Journal, citing anonymous sources, reported that the United Arab Emirates had carried out assaults on Iran. The United Arab Emirates became a target of Iranian missiles and drones in the early days of the war.
Hormuz remains largely blocked, with Iran and other Persian Gulf countries unable to export energy supplies through the waterway — a conduit for a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas before the war.
Iran has deployed its Ghadir-class midget submarines in the Persian Gulf to act as an “invisible guardian” of Hormuz, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported. The home-grown model, capable of firing anti-ship cruise missiles, will add to concerns among shipowners about transiting the chokepoint.
A tanker loaded with L liquefied natural gas from Qatar appeared to have turned back from the strait on Monday. Still, some vessels managed to get through, including a Qatari ship.
The US Navy faces millions of dollars of extra costs each time it sends one of its destroyers through the waterway, in a fraught voyage that requires added surveillance measures and support from fighter jets and helicopters.
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Failed attempts to reach a basic framework for further discussions between Washington and Tehran jeopardise the prospects for successful negotiations over future curbs on Iran’s nuclear programme — a key aim of the US-Israeli military campaign.
Trump had proposed that Iran permit shipping to pass through Hormuz while Washington ends its blockade of Iranian ports, with nuclear talks to follow.
Iran’s other demands include the release of its frozen assets and the lifting of US sanctions on its oil sales, the person said. Iran’s state-run IRIB News described Trump’s plan, conveyed last week, as tantamount to surrender and said the US must also pay war damages.
More related to the war:
- The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve awarded 53.3 million barrels to companies including oil trader Trafigura Group and US refiner Marathon Petroleum Corp, adding to a wave of oil released to help tame surging prices stemming from the Iran war.
- The conflict with Iran will be on Trump’s agenda when he meets Xi later this week. Revenue that China provides to Iran as well as potential weapons exports would be among the topics discussed at the summit, according to a US official who briefed reporters over the weekend. They spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the preparations.
- Global oil markets are losing 100 million barrels every week Hormuz is shut, Saudi Aramco’s chief executive officer Amin Nasser said.
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