(July 15): President Donald Trump said he would intensify the US’ bombardment against Iran until it stops attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz and agrees to open the waterway.
American forces hit Iranian military targets overnight for a fourth straight day, again prompting counterstrikes from Tehran on US bases in Gulf Arab states, including Kuwait and Bahrain.
A US-Iran interim peace deal signed around a month ago has all but collapsed over the past week as the two sides feud over control of the vital strait, through which the likes of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates send most of their energy exports. Oil rose for a third day on Wednesday, with Brent jumping to almost US$86 ($111) a barrel, taking its gain this week to 13%.
With Iran attacking vessels it says are crossing the chokepoint without its permission, Trump decided to end a waiver on Iranian oil sanctions and reimpose a naval blockade, before also striking the country again. So far, he’s mostly kept to military targets in the south of the Islamic Republic such as radar, missile and drone sites. The bombing campaign remains far less intense that during the height of the war in March and early April, when Tehran and other major cities were under constant fire.
Trump pledged to bomb again on Wednesday night and continue until Iran relents.
“We’re going to hit them very hard tomorrow night,” he told Fox News on Tuesday. “We are going to hit them very hard the night after. And then next week it gets really bad for them because next week comes the power plants. We are going to knock out all of their bridges unless they get to the table and negotiate.”
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Energy targets in Iran will be left “for last,” he said.
The president, who’s polling numbers in the US have been hit by growing discontent over the war, seems increasingly frustrated with Iran and its persistent maritime attacks. Each side blames the other for breaching the terms of the so-called memorandum of understanding (MOU), which was worded ambiguously with regards to how quickly vessels would have free passage through Hormuz.
As well as reopening the strait, the preliminary deal was meant to lead to extensive talks about curbing Iran’s nuclear program and a permanent peace. But those negotiations are stalled as the warring sides focus on Hormuz.
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Iran shows little sign of backing down. On Wednesday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — whose navy is behind many of the threats against commercial vessels — said the strait will remain closed until the US ends its strikes and the blockade of Iranian ports.
“The region’s oil and gas exports are either available to all or available to none,” the IRGC said, according to a report from Iran’s Press TV.
US strikes have killed more than 30 civilians in recent days, the Iranian government said. Tehran’s military, on Wednesday, said seven people were killed by a missile attack on a barracks in the town of Iranshahr in the south east.
Trump backed away from a plan to charge 20% on cargo shipments through the strait after the US’ Gulf Arab allies urged him to drop it. He announced the change on Tuesday, just a day after floating the fee, which would have forced the biggest oil tankers to pay around US$35 million.
He said he would replace the “reimbursement fee” — meant to compensate Washington for helping ships get through the chokepoint unharmed — with trade and investment deals that Gulf states would make with the US. The likes of the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar said last year they would invest trillions of dollars between them in the US over the next decade or so. There’s no indication they’ll boost those pledges in light of Trump’s U-turn.
The US, however, stuck with the decision to resume the naval blockade, a move that has antagonised the Islamic Republic and may further weaken its beleaguered economy. The blockade was first imposed in April and lifted last month after the MOU was agreed.
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Trump’s reversal on Hormuz fees underscored the volatility of the US’ policy towards the strait, which carried roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows before the war. US officials have alternated between insisting passage should remain free and debating who, if anyone, should charge for transit.
The move also illustrates the bind Trump is in as he tries to end a conflict he began with Israel in late February, saying it was necessary to stop the country building a nuclear weapon. Tehran has always denied wanting to do that, though it has enriched uranium almost to weapons-grade levels.
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