(Nov 25): The Chinese government has instructed the country’s airlines to reduce the number of flights to Japan through March 2026, according to people familiar with the matter, signalling Beijing is braced for a protracted spat between the two nations.
The edict was made last week after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments on Taiwan inflamed China, but before US President Donald Trump’s back-to-back calls with Chinese President Xi Jinping and the recently installed Japanese leader on Monday.
Airlines were asked to make the changes “for now”, suggesting the situation could change in line with diplomatic developments, according to the people, who asked not to be named because the information is private. The end of March marks the change between the global airline industry’s winter and summer schedules.
Travel from China to Japan has already dipped in the wake of Beijing’s warning to citizens against travelling, and its edict to airlines ensures that the pullback will last through the Lunar New Year, a peak period for Chinese overseas spending. Airlines have been given discretion on which flights and how many to cut, the people said.
The Civil Aviation Administration of China did not respond to a request for comment.
Cancellations by would-be tourists are already extending through April 2026, according to data from China Trading Desk, a market researcher that specialises in China travel data.
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“What started as a year-end shock is now bleeding into next year,” said Subramania Bhatt, chief executive of China Trading Desk. “That suggests expectations are in free fall and many travellers are no longer treating this as a short-lived blip.”
The number of flights from China to Japan still scheduled for December are down more than 20% from October, and Bhatt expects to see more than 50% of routes cancelled through the end of the year. At least 12 routes from Chinese cities, including Shanghai, Guangzhou and Nanjing to popular Japanese destinations such as Nagoya, Fukuoka and Sapporo have been axed, with more likely to come, he said.
China Trading Desk estimates Japan stands to lose out on as much as US$1.2 billion in visitor spending between now and the end of the year as Chinese tourists cancel their trips. If cancellations continue at this pace through 2026, the cumulative hit could reach as much as US$9 billion, said Bhatt.
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China Eastern Airlines is the most exposed of the mainland airlines from a pullback in demand, operating almost 16,000 flights a year to Japan.
Among changes made by Chinese airlines, they have implemented a series of ad-hoc weekly cuts, or downgraded flights to smaller single-aisle planes from larger volume widebody jets, AeroRoutes data showed.
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