Singapore-based fund managers anticipate heightened geopolitical risks and market volatility in 2026, according to the latest IMAS Investment Managers’ Outlook Survey. While perspectives on global inflation remain nuanced, 69% of respondents expect the US Federal Reserve to implement rate cuts exceeding 0.5% by year-end, signalling a trend toward monetary easing despite macroeconomic uncertainty.
Furthermore, 60% of respondents express concern that the independence of major central banks may erode in 2026, reflecting anxieties over political encroachment on monetary policy.
The 11th edition of this annual survey gathered insights from C-suite professionals across 63 IMAS member firms from “late November to early December 2025). These participants, including Singapore-based fund managers and asset owners, collectively oversee more than US$35 trillion in global assets.
The survey explores how firms are navigating shifting macro conditions, geopolitical frictions, and structural industry transitions while identifying the core themes poised to drive capital allocation.
Market sentiment for 2026 remains decidedly positive across the Asian landscape. Japan and China were identified as the most promising markets (each cited by 21% of respondents), followed by India (13%), Singapore (11%) and Taiwan (11%).
This regional optimism is reflected in equity forecasts: 72% of managers expect the MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index to rise by 10% to 20%, with 73% forecasting similar gains for the MSCI China Index by late 2026. Notably, this bullish outlook persists despite the fact that 61% of respondents do not expect China’s GDP growth to accelerate, suggesting that optimism is rooted in attractive valuations, policy interventions, and specific sector opportunities rather than broad macroeconomic expansion.
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Locally, about 90% of respondents expect the Straits Times Index (STI) to strengthen or remain stable, bolstered by resilient corporate earnings, robust dividend yields and government initiatives aimed at revitalising the equity ecosystem.
On currency, 46% of respondents anticipate the USD/SGD pair to weaken by 5% to 10%, while 39% expect the exchange rate to remain stable.
Meanwhile, respondents also have a positive outlook on US equities and gold. Sentiment remains constructive, with 54% forecasting a 10% to 20% rise in the S&P 500. Investors view gold favourably; 50% expect gains of 12.5% to 25%, while nearly 90% expect prices to either rise or hold steady.
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“The survey results demonstrate that fund managers are successfully adapting to sustained uncertainty, identifying high-conviction opportunities in Asia even as geopolitical risks escalate,” says Jenny Sofian, Chairman of IMAS. “For Singapore-based managers, this environment coincides with persistent margin pressures and operational complexity, necessitating a shift from experimentation to disciplined execution. The focus is now on scalable business models and the practical deployment of AI to deliver measurable productivity gains. In an intensifying competitive landscape, the winners will be those who can marry sound investment judgment with technology-enabled operational efficiency.”
“This year’s findings show that managers are responding to margin pressure by becoming far more selective,” notes Thomas Kaegi, Chairperson of the IMAS Development Committee. “Rather than broad expansion, firms are prioritising initiatives that offer tangible outcomes – such as AI-driven productivity, a continued rotation into private assets and alternatives, and the adoption of leaner operating models.”
