BalWin5 is a new 2.2 GW offshore high-voltage direct current (HVDC) grid connection that will transmit electricity from offshore windfarms in the German North Sea to the onshore transmission network in Germany. It is the fourth project awarded to the GE Vernova-Seatrium consortium under the five-year collaboration agreement with TenneT announced in March 2023. Seatrium will design and construct the offshore converter platform and manage its transportation and installation in the German North Sea.
Seatrium’s share price had declined around 16% from October’s $2.48 peak, weighed down by the Maersk Offshore Wind’s cancellation of a US$475 ($613) million contract for a wind turbine installation vessel (WTIV) and underwhelming order wins for the first 10 months of the year. The order book of $16.6 billion as at Sept 30 implied revenue coverage of roughly two years, notes DBS.
DBS suggests that the pair of major contract wins — this and Tiber FPU estimated to be around $1.3 billion — in the span of two weeks indicates a “strong uptick” in order momentum is likely to “boost confidence” and the company’s share price. It notes that the order book of $16.6 billion as at Sept 30 implied revenue coverage of roughly two years.
For 2026, DBS seems confident that Seatrium will achieve an $8 billion annual contract win target. It believes the O&M player is well-positioned to win more contracts including TenneT HVDC contracts worth around $2 billion each, Petrobras Seap 1 and 2 worth $1 billion each as well as projects ranging from $300 million to $1 billion in the Americas and Middle East.
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DBS is also optimistic of stronger margins up to the mid-teens and cost savings from streamlining operations including divestments of non-core facilities. Coupled with the removal of cost overruns from the US yard and projects, Seatrium is one of DBS’s “top picks” for 2026.
While CGSI analysts Lim Siew Khee and Meghana Kande have faith in Seatrium’s prospects, they are slightly more conservative in their report.
Instead of DBS’s $8 billion estimate, Lim and Kande forecast Seatrium to win about $6 billion in new contracts for 2026. They also estimate BalWin’s margins to be high single digits. Project-wise, they see similar potential wins as DBS.
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Lim and Kande note re-rating catalysts include the resolution of Seatrium’s arbitration with Maersk Offshore Wind over the WTIV contract termination, “higher-than-expected margin improvements” and potential monetisation of non-core assets.
On the back of higher margin projects and new contracts that support earnings growth from FY2025 to FY2027, CGSI value Seatrium at 1.3 times of 2026 forecasted P/B, giving a 10% discount to the counter’s historical P/B of 1.5 times.
At 11.10am on Dec 12, Seatrium’s shares are up six cents or 2.9% at $2.14.
