From the perspective of the analysts, there are several tailwinds in UOL’s favour. The Singapore residential property market remains underpinned by stable demand and UOL has acquired some plum sites. On Jan 14, UOL, along with CapitaLand Development (CLD) and CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, was awarded the tender for the Hougang Central Government Land Sales (GLS) site at approximately $1.5 billion, or $1,179 psf per plot ratio.
According to JP Morgan, the consortium could launch the Hougang site at an average selling price of $2,300 psf for the residential portion. If so, UOL can enjoy margins estimated at 10%. Pre-tax margins may rise to 17% at an average selling price of $2,500 psf for Hougang residential. The site acquisition anchors UOL’s landbank into 2027, estimates Khi and Song.\
Elsewhere, Thomson View, acquired in partnership with CLD, can accommodate 1,240 units and will be the largest launch in 2026. This, coupled with Dorset Road comprising 428 units, will account for around 14% of 11,800 units launching this year, JP Morgan estimates.
Meanwhile, UOL’s FY2026-2028 earnings should be underpinned by primarily sold projects such as Parktown Residences (94% sold), Skye at Holland (99%), UpperHouse at Orchard Boulevard (73%), Meyer Blue (89%), Pinetree Hill (92%) and Watten House (96%).
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When UOL announces its FY2025 results on Feb 27, management could provide an update on the redevelopment of the ageing Marina Square, JP Morgan analysts suggest. Last December, Singapore Land Group, UOL’s 50%-held subsidiary, announced plans to redevelop Marina Square into Singapore’s first hyper-mixed development that will include a residential tower, a serviced apartment block and a mixed-use tower with hospitality, office and even performing arts spaces.
Khi and Song believe that the redevelopment is a long-awaited catalyst to unlock value from the ageing Marina Square mall with a potential gross development value of $4.4 billion and a 5% to 6% uplift to UOL’s RNAV, or $1.5 billion.
And of course, UOL has the potential to undertake a value-unlocking, medium-term monetisation programme via a REIT, or to undertake asset enhancements and redevelopment of existing sites, coupled with non-core asset sales.
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The JP Morgan analysts have identified some $14.3 billion in assets held by UOL itself and its subsidiary, Singapore Land Group, that could be injected into a REIT.
The assets are concentrated mainly in Singapore, with 84% worth $12 billion. Commercial buildings account for the slight majority, at 61% or $8.7 billion. The list of buildings wholly owned by UOL includes United Square, Odeon 331 and 333 and One Upper Pickering. Those 100% held by SingLand include Singapore Land Tower, the Gateway, UIC Building, SGX Centre 2, West Mall and Tampines Plaza 1 & 2.
Hospitality assets, meanwhile, include eight Pan Pacific- or Parkroyal-branded hotels and serviced suites. The most valuable property is Pan Pacific Singapore, valued at $955 million, accounting for 22% of the total value of $4.3 billion, according to JP Morgan.
Another portion of the properties comprises commercial buildings in developed markets, such as 388 George St, Sydney, and three other buildings in London, estimated to be worth a total of $0.9 billion. Hotel properties in developed markets, meanwhile, account for a similar quantum with five in Australia and one in London. UOL owns four other hotels in Malaysia, two in Jakarta and one in Vietnam.
Given this mixed portfolio, UOL, according to JP Morgan analysts, has various options for constituting the REIT if and when it happens. For example, the REIT can be focused on one asset class, be it commercial or hospitality; it can be a mix of different assets; or it can be a pure Singapore portfolio or one organised by developed or emerging markets.
In any case, as it is, UOL is set to enjoy “strong” earnings visibility ahead. Khi and Song estimate that the company will see a 29% three-year EPS CAGR to FY2027, underpinned by record $5.2 billion in home sales in 2025 — a level over four times UOL’s three-year average of $1.2 billion.
“We expect FY2025 earnings to beat, with our EPS estimates 16% above Bloomberg consensus. UOL is one of the top performers year-to-date in 2026, up 17.9% vs 5.3% for the STI, and we anticipate continued outperformance,” state the JP Morgan analysts.
