According to JP Morgan, the consortium could launch the Hougang site at an average selling price (ASP) of $2,300 psf for the residential portion at which level, the margins are estimated at 10%. “Pre-tax margins may rise to 17% at ASP of $2,500 psf for Hougang residential. The site acquisition anchors UOL’s landbank into 2027,” the JP Morgan report says.
Elsewhere, Thomson View, which was acquired in partnership with CLD, can accommodate 1,240 units, and it will be the largest launch in 2026. This, coupled with Dorset Road comprising 428 units will account for around 14% of 11,800 units launching this year, JP Morgan estimates.
Meanwhile, UOL’s FY2026-2028 earnings should be underpinned by largely sold projects such as Parktown Residences (94% sold), Skye at Holland (99%), UpperHouse at Orchard Boulevard (73%), Meyer Blue (89%), Pinetree Hill (92%) and Watten House (96%).
When UOL announces its FY2025 results on Feb 27, management could update on the Marina Square redevelopment, JP Morgan suggests. “We see the redevelopment as a long-awaited catalyst to unlock value from the ageing Marina Square mall with a potential gross development value (GDV) of $4.4 billion and a $1.1 billion (5%-6%) uplift to RNAV,” JP Morgan says.
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UOL has the potential to undertake a value unlock medium-term monetisation programme via a REIT and/ or AEIs and redevelopments of existing sites, coupled with non-core asset sales, JP Morgan adds.
“We see strong earnings visibility for UOL with a 29% three-year EPS CAGR to FY2027, underpinned by record $5.2 billion home sales in 2025, over four times UOL’s three-year average of $1.2 billion. We expect FY2025 earnings to beat, with our EPS estimates 16% above Bloomberg consensus. UOL is one of the top performers year-to-date in 2026, up 17.9% vs 5.3% for the STI, and we anticipate continued outperformance,” JP Morgan says.
The bank retains an overweight rating on UOL with a higher price target of $12.05, based on an 18% discount to RNAV, implying 0.84x price to book.
