“Management also highlighted healthier domestic demand, while costs remain well controlled through early raw material procurement and disciplined marketing spending,” he adds. From 43 cents, Hussaini now figures this stock is worth 48 cents, as he raised his earnings forecast for FY2026 to FY2028.
At just 10 times forward P/E, Thai Beverage trades at around 50% discount to peers while offering an attractive dividend yield of around 6%, he reasons.
On the other hand, Chee Zheng Feng of DBS Group Research has turned more cautious. He has kept his “buy” call but has cut his target price, albeit from a level that had topped his peers’.
From 62 cents, Chee now figures the stock is worth 53 cents, which is based on 12 times earnings, a valuation multiple at the counter’s five-year average and broadly in line with other major regional spirits companies.
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“We believe the company remains on track to deliver our FY2026 earnings growth forecast of 9.4%. While crop prices for next year have yet to be finalised and could trend higher, we believe resilient demand and disciplined cost management should help sustain stable earnings in FY2027,” says Chee.
Chee, whose earlier bullish view was that the re-rating of this stock is based on possible value-unlocking corporate actions, has maintained that this remains the case.
“The group owns high-quality beer and F&B assets that, in our view, could command higher valuations under the right corporate structure or listing strategy.
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However, the timing of such initiatives remains uncertain and will likely depend on market conditions and underlying business performance,” he says.
Meanwhile, Chu Peng of OCBC Group Research has kept her “buy” call and 55 cents fair value. She expects Thai Beverage to see continued recovery in sales volumes for both spirits and beer, following earlier disruptions caused by border conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia and adverse weather conditions in Vietnam.
Lower raw material costs on molasses and malt in FY2026 should support the company’s recovery and help offset softer demand. She notes that Thai Beverage has secured a supply of molasses, required for spirits production, at prices around 40% lower than the year before.
The company’s beer production has also secured malt at an attractive cost level throughout the year.
Similarly, Meghana Kande and Lim Siew Khee of CGS International, citing Thai Beverage’s resilient margin position, which anchors earnings growth, despite quarterly volatility in volumes, have maintained their “add” call.
They have also maintained their target price at 58 cents, based on 12 times FY2027 earnings.
For them, re-rating catalysts include margin expansion from lower input costs and potential value unlocking, such as the long-awaited IPO of its beer business.
On the other hand, downside risks include heightened competition eroding market share, macro weakness impacting volumes, and margin pressure from higher selling, general and administrative expenses and input costs.
