"Management also highlighted healthier domestic demand, while costs remain well controlled through early raw material procurement and disciplined marketing spending," he adds.
From 43 cents, Hussaini now figures that this stock is worth 48 cents, as he raised his FY2026 to FY2028 earnings forecast.
At just 10x forward PE, Thai Beverage trades at around 50% discount to peers while offering an attractive dividend yield of around 6%, he reasons.
On the other hand, Chee Zheng Feng of DBS Group Research has turned more cautious. He has kept his "buy" call but has cut his target price, albeit from a level topping his peers.
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From 62 cents, Chee now figures the stock is worth 53 cents, which is based on 12x earnings, a valuation multiple at the counter's five-year average and broadly in line with other major regional spirits companies.
"We believe the company remains on track to deliver our FY2026 earnings growth forecast of 9.4%. While crop prices for next year have yet to be finalised and could trend higher, we believe resilient demand and disciplined cost management should help sustain stable earnings in FY2027," says Chee.
Chee, whose earlier bullish views that the re-rating of this stock is based on possible value-unlocking corporate actions, has maintained his view that this is so.
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"The group owns high quality beer and F&B assets that, in our view, could command higher valuations under the right corporate structure or listing strategy.
However, the timing of such initiatives remains uncertain and will likely depend on market conditions and underlying business performance," he says.
Meanwhile, Chu Peng of OCBC Group Research has kept her "buy" call and 55 cents fair value.
She expects Thai Beverage to see continued recovery in sales volumes for both spirits and beer, following earlier disruptions from border conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia, as well as adverse weather conditions in Vietnam.
Lower raw material costs on molasses and malt in FY2026 should support the company’s recovery and help offset softer demand. She notes that Thai Beverage has secured supply of molasses, required for spirits production, at prices around 40% compared to the year earlier.
The company's beer production has also secured malt at an attractive cost level through whole of the year.
Similarly, Meghana Kande and Lim Siew Khee of CGS International, citing Thai Beverage’s resilient margin position which anchors earnings growth, despite quarterly volatility in volumes, have maintained their "add" call.
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They have also held their target price at 58 cents, which is based on 12x FY2027 earnings.
For them, re-rating catalysts include margin expansion from lower input costs and potential value-unlocking, such as the long-talked about IPO of its beer business.
On the other hand, downside risks include heightened competition eroding market share, macro weakness impacting volumes, and margin pressure from higher SG&A and input costs.
