However, the timing will depend on market conditions, and noted that long-standing social concerns about alcohol-related listings have eased significantly. ThaiBev listed on the SGX back in 2006 amid then domestic opposition.
Just on Jan 7, Urapeepatanapong said alcohol company listings, long a taboo topic in the predominantly Buddhist country, may no longer be so as it seeks to revive the stock market. Permitting alcohol beverage producers to list would help make the domestic market more attractive, he said.
The way DBS sees it, valuation will be the key determinant of whether ThaiBev proceeds with a Thailand listing of its spirits business.
"With global alcohol beverage peers trading at around 13x forward PE, we believe ThaiBev would likely seek a premium valuation closer to 16–20x forward PE.
See also: Gold brings more shine to CNMC Goldmine
"However, with the broader Thai equity market still under pressure, we see a listing as unlikely in the near term unless there is a meaningful market re-rating.
DBS warns that with spirits volumes declining over the past couple of years, securing a premium valuation could be a hard sell to investors.
"By contrast, we see a higher probability of a BeerCo IPO in Singapore materialising given that the current track record of improving beer volumes in Thailand and early signs of a turnaround in Vietnam," say DBS.
With the stock trading at around 10x forward PE, a BeerCo listing at a premium to the current valuation could unlock value and serve as a meaningful re-rating catalyst, says DBS.
