CGS International’s Meghana Kande and Lim Siew Khee estimate that Vinamilk contributed approximately 6% of ThaiBev’s core patmi for 1HFY2026 ended March 31. They suggest that ThaiBev could increase its exposure to Vinamilk and expand into Vietnam’s non-alcoholic beverage market. For context, ThaiBev’s subsidiary Fraser & Neave increased its stake in Vinamilk by 4.6% to 24.99% in December 2025.
As F&N’s stake in Vinamilk falls just below the 25% mandatory takeover limit, Kande and Lim believe ThaiBev could potentially increase its exposure to Vinamilk through another subsidiary, Sabeco, which is Vietnam’s largest beer producer. ThaiBev owns 53.5% of Sabeco.
Beyond dairy, Kande and Lim believe ThaiBev is keen to expand its non-alcoholic beverage portfolio, as evidenced by its attempts to acquire a Vietnamese soft-drinks factory.
Meanwhile, the long-talked-about spinoff listing of the beer business remains in the works. ThaiBev, according to the CGSI analysts, is exploring options with alternative parties for its planned BeerCo IPO following internal reorganisation at its potential partner. As such, investors holding out for this potential value-unlocking may need to wait longer.
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Chee Zheng Feng of DBS Group Research believes geopolitical tensions have delayed the timeline for a BeerCo IPO, with management reiterating that the IPO remains under consideration. For PhillipCapital’s Paul Chew, BeerCo’s spinoff remains an asset monetisation opportunity as Southeast Asia, especially Vietnam, is a growing consumer market attractive to strategic investors.
Besides beer, ThaiBev has a significant spirits portfolio, which has grown in Myanmar with its Grand Royal portfolio enjoying “good” traction. Chee of DBS notes that ready-to-drink products are not cannibalising the existing spirits portfolio while delivering higher gross margins than the Thai beer business. He expects the ready-to-drink segment could contribute meaningfully to growth, following US trends in which its market share for this segment doubled from 6% in 2019 to 13% in 2025.
However, PhillipCapital’s Chew warns that consumer sentiment will be hurt by a “stagflationary” environment of rising prices and diminishing spending capacity as incomes remain generally flat. ThaiBev is addressing these headwinds with strategies including smaller, affordable packs, convenience through ready-to-drink spirits, new products such as protein beverages and brand extensions into soda and mineral water.
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In contrast to the growth in Myanmar, the Thai spirits market remains weak, with a 7% decline in the first four months of 2026, attributed to ongoing Thailand-Cambodia border tensions. As such, ThaiBev is focused on building resilience and seeks to secure favourable raw material prices for its next round of contract negotiations with suppliers, according to the CGSI analysts.
“We expect margin expansion to persist in the current FY2026 from previously secured low-cost molasses inventory, with any cost increases from new contracts likely to flow through only towards late-FY2027,” state Kande and Lim.
ThaiBev, according to Chee of DBS, has reassured investors that it has avoided panic-buying raw materials at elevated prices in recent months and instead plans to take advantage of the current price decline to secure inventory. However, prices are still expected to trend higher in FY2027 versus FY2026. “Strong supplier relationships continue to support favourable pricing and reliable supply,” says Chee, who adds that he expects input prices to likely come in lower than feared in FY2027, particularly following the recent correction in key raw material costs.
He also points out that the company has negotiated cost, insurance, and freight terms, which should provide near-term protection against rising freight costs. In addition, the company should control its marketing costs, as management shared.
Despite limited visibility into near-term value unlock from the BeerCo IPO, Chee believes that ThaiBev remains operationally sound. Based on June 24’s closing price of 44.5 cents, or around 10 times P/E and a more than 5% dividend yield, Chee thinks the valuation appears attractive for income-focused investors seeking resilient dividends with relatively limited downside risk. He values the company at an unchanged 53 cents on a “buy” call.
Kande and Lim see earnings upside from faster debt repayment as the company completes major planned capex in Cambodia and Malaysia. ThaiBev’s margin-driven earnings growth and more than 5% dividend yield support its “add” rating at an unchanged sum-of-parts valuation of 58 cents, or 12 times P/E.
Meanwhile, Chew believes the company’s current market price remains attractive at a P/E of 10 times, with a dividend yield of around 5.5%. He maintains his target of 53 cents, representing around 12 times P/E for FY2026 estimated earnings.
