Kande and Lim estimates Vinamilk to have contributed approximately 6% of ThaiBev’s core PATMI for 1H FY2026 ended March 31. They hint that ThaiBev could increase its exposure to Vinamilk and expand into Vietnam’s non-alcoholic beverage market. For context, ThaiBev’s subsidiary Fraser & Neave increased its stake in Vinamilk by 4.6% to 24.99% in December 2025.
As F&N’s stake in Vinamilk falls just below the 25% mandatory takeover limit, CGSI suspect ThaiBev could potentially increase its exposure to Vinamilk through another subsidiary SABECO, which is Vietnam’s largest beer producer. ThaiBev owns 53.5% of SABECO.
Beyond dairy, Kande and Lim believe that ThaiBev is keen to expand its non-alcoholic beverage portfolio as evidenced by attempts to acquire a Vietnamese soft drinks factory.
BeerCo IPO cheer - when?
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ThaiBev says it is exploring options with alternative parties for its planned BeerCo IPO following internal reorganisation at its potential partner, shares CGSI, which believes investors holding out for this potential value-unlocking may need to wait longer.
BeerCo is a subsidiary which consolidates ThaiBev’s brewery operations and regional brands.
DBS adds that geopolitical tensions have delayed the timeline for a BeerCo IPO, with management reiterating that the IPO remains under consideration.
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For Chew, BeerCo's spinoff remains an asset monetisation opportunity as Southeast Asia, especially Vietnam, is a growing consumer market attractive to strategic investors.
Resilient spirits in 'stagflationary' environment
CGSI points out that stronger sales in Myanmar contributed to the growth in the spirits segment, with the Grand Royal portfolio enjoying “good” traction. The Mainboard-listed company also expanded its product line, launching new ready-to-drink spirits products in the Thai market in early FY2026 to drive incremental volumes.
Furthermore, DBS notes that the company recently launched a new Thai whisky brand, Prakaan, and continues to expand in the ready-to-drink segment. Management shares that the ready-to-drink products are not cannibalising the existing spirits portfolio while delivering higher gross margins than the Thai beer business, according to Chee who adds that minimal capex is required as production can be supported by existing plant infrastructure.
The way Chee sees it, the ready-to-drink segment could contribute meaningfully to growth, following US trends where market share for this segment doubled from 6% in 2019 to 13% in 2025.
However, Chew believes that the consumer is enduring a "stagflationary" environment of rising prices and diminishing spending capacity as incomes remain generally flat. He adds that ThaiBev is addressing these headwinds with strategies including smaller, affordable packs, convenience through ready-to-drink spirits, new products such as protein beverages, and brand extensions into soda and mineral water.
In addition, the Thai spirits market maintains its weakness, seeing a 7% decline in the first four months of 2026, attributed to ongoing Thailand-Cambodia border tensions. As such, ThaiBev is focused on building resilience and seeks to secure favourable raw material prices for its next round of contract negotiations with suppliers, according to CGSI.
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“We expect margin expansion to persist in FY26F from previously secured low-cost molasses inventory, with any cost increases from new contracts likely to flow through only towards late-FY27F,” state Kande and Lim.
Chee provides more details, sharing that management reassured investors that it has avoided panic buying raw materials at elevated prices in recent months and instead, plans to take advantage of the current price decline to secure inventory, although prices are still expected to trend higher in FY2027 versus FY2026. “Strong supplier relationships continue to support favourable pricing and reliable supply,” writes Chee who adds that he expects input prices to likely come in lower than feared in FY2027, particularly following the recent correction in key raw material costs.
He also points out that the company has also negotiated cost, insurance, and freight terms, which should provide near-term protection against rising freight costs. In addition, the company should be controlling its marketing costs as shared by management.
Despite limited visibility on near-term value unlock via BeerCo IPO, Chee believes that ThaiBev remains operationally sound. Based on June 24’s closing price of 44.5 cents, or approximately 10 times P/E and a more than 5% dividend yield, Chee thinks the valuation appears attractive for income-focused investors seeking resilient dividends with relatively limited downside risk. He values the company at an unchanged 53 cents on a “buy” call.
For Kande and Lim, they see earnings upside from faster debt repayment as the company completes major planned capex in Cambodia and Malaysia. ThaiBev’s margin-driven earnings growth and more than 5% dividend yield support their “add” rating at unchanged sum-of-parts 58 cents valuation, or 12 times P/E.
Meanwhile, Chew believes the company's current market price remains attractive at 10 times P/E with a dividend yield of around 5.5%. He maintains his target 53 cents, representing around 12 times P/E for FY2026 estimated earnings.
As at around 10.15am on June 29, ThaiBev is trading at 43.5 cents, down 0.5 cents or 1.1%.
