With that, she expects Wilmar’s businesses to recover gradually in FY2026-FY2027, led by China. Based on channel checks, she expects Wilmar’s China soybean crushing margin to come in higher than peers in 3QFY2025, supported by its competitive feedstock pricing and stronger demand for soybean meal.
“We expect Wilmar to report a 3QFY2025 net loss of US$400 million - $420 million, taking the fine into consideration. Excluding this, we forecast 3QFY2025 core net profit at US$290 million - $310 million (+29% q-o-q, +50% y-o-y), underpinned by higher utilisation of China soybean crushing plants and healthy margins; gradual recovery in China consumer spending; and higher crude palm oil (CPO) prices,” says Yow.
After factoring the US$709 million fine, Yow expects Wilmar to report a net loss of US$400 million – US$420 million in FY3QFY2025, although core net profit should improve across all business segments.
In the food products segment, she anticipates continued q-o-q and y-o-y sales volume growth, particularly for medium pack and bulk products, supported by stable margins. For feed and industrial products segment, the group is expected to report higher sales volume and healthy margins in the oilseed & grains sub-segment, partially offset by challenging refining margins in the tropical oil sub-segment. Strong CPO prices in 3Q2025 are expected to support performance in the plantation and sugar milling segment, in the research house’s view.
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“While some overhang issues remain in Indonesia — such as potential land confiscation and ongoing investigations into rice mislabelling — these are viewed as relatively minor compared to the one-off penalty already concluded,” says Yow.
As at 11.30am, shares in Wilmar are trading 1% higher for the day at $2.92.
