The De Minimis exemption, which previously allowed shipments valued under US$800 ($1,033.38) to enter the US duty-free and with expedited clearance, was removed earlier this year. As such, retailers such as Amazon moved from direct-to-consumer international shipping to increased US-based warehousing. Sats is serving the increased demand for domestic freight routes within the US as retailers bring their inventory closer to their end markets and restructure their supply chains towards domestic distribution, Osman points out.
“International shipments into the US have also been observed shifting from small parcels to increasingly consolidated orders, leading to lower manpower costs,” he adds.
The analyst also highlights Sats’ acquisition of Worldwide Flight Services (WFS), which was completed in April 2023. The move, he says, has boosted Sats’ presence as a global air cargo platform and brought about multi-station cargo contract wins across the Americas in FY2025 to FY2026, which has driven a shift in revenue contribution by geography.
In FY2023, Sats’ markets, excluding Singapore, accounted for about 20% of revenue. In FY2025, this figure rose sharply to 65% after the acquisition, with contract wins predominantly secured in the Americas and Europe during that time. “There is an observed step change in contract wins through global tenders, multi-year renewals and platform-level partnerships, particularly in the gateway services segment,” says Osman.
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Sats’ global footprint may help offset decline in China-US flows
Looking ahead, Osman sees Sats’ global footprint being well placed to weather the changes in the rerouting of air cargo.
Air cargo is being rerouted from the China-US routes to the China-Europe and SEA-US trade routes, the analyst notes, with market tonnages in the China-US route down by 8% y-o-y in November. Meanwhile, tonnages from the China-Europe route were up by 8% y-o-y, according to air cargo market data from WorldACD.
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That said, the analyst believes inflows to Europe may be moderated in the long-term with the European Union looking to impose a EUR3 fee on inbound small parcels from July 2026.
At the same time, he notes that there may be a rollback of the trade tariffs with the US mid-term elections happening in 2026, which may lead to stronger air cargo demand and provide a meaningful uplift in inbound air cargo volume to the Americas.
In addition to his target price, Osman has also increased his FY2026 patmi forecast by 5.5% to $249 million. He sees earnings resilience underpinned by the over 20 contract wins and renewals in FY2025 and FY2026 with stability from phased revenue recognition across long contract tenures.
As at 3.21pm, shares in Sats are trading flat at $3.75.
